Stratfor.com
27 February 2012
Conclusion:
The Nigerian government is capable of manipulating media reports to exaggerate the success of its operation against Boko Haram, but indications over the past month suggest that the crackdown has been more effective than those in the past. Personalities who have made statements on behalf of the group have been arrested, but it is still unclear if the SSS has detained Boko Haram' s top trainers and operational commanders or if those individuals have simply withdrawn for now. While their current attacks are not tactically complex, they are widespread. As long as the group' s regional network of bases remains intact, Boko Haram will retain the ability to re-emerge as it did in 2011 after the death of its founder and leader, Mohamad Yusuf.
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