Nigeria is Angry: What Can be Done Now?

Nigeria is Angry: What Can be Done Now?

Dear NDWG readers,

Indeed the times are worrying, the more so since they seem to have been unnecessary, as a Niger Delta Working Group member and a Financial Times editorial below point out.  A PowerPoint presentation in circulation.  Nicknamed "The GAME CHANGER," it was reportedly put to the NEC by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala sometime last fall before the executive order on subsidy removal went into effect.  It contains a two-part strategy, one “economic” the other “social.” 

This dual approach has become quite standard since the Social Action Programs of the 1980s that were rolled out as an afterthought to cushion the sometimes draconian effects of Structural Adjustment.  Nigeria, recall, never agreed to become a part of such programs – in part to its detriment.  In any case, today’s world is very different from the 1980s.  African governments are more confident and democratic, populations are more educated, many people are better off, and information flows easily through cell phones, the internet, and social media.  These new communication tools offer governments enormous opportunities for mass public education and social mobilization. Nigeria made great use of them during its last election and succeeded in unifying the country around a common goal: a free and fair election.

Given this successful Nigerian precedent, the rush to enact a subsidy removal program without the same thoughtful preparation is a great pity.  Especially so, as it is well known that fuel price increases have generated social unrest and the fall of one government (Ernest Shonekan – with truly horrid consequences) in the past.  One can only wonder why decision makers didn’t study their recent past successes (and more distant past failures) and then take the same necessary steps to build trust and communicate with their people.  This is not an age of “tell me” or even “show me.”  It is an age of “engage me.” The Niger Delta insurgency has taught everyone that lesson well.  It is also an age in Nigeria where another insurgency in the form of Boko Haram and its sympathizers is underway.

So, now what?  Now, when everyone is angry and upset and less open to reason than they might have been several months ago.  And now that it seems the government is determined at present not to roll back its decision on the subsidy.

One will need first to calm the waters certainly – not through threats or undisciplined security – but by designing a massive and rapid strategy to get out the “social” message and combine it with a demonstrated action to implement some very quick wins that will relieve social and economic stress. The 1,000 busses is a weak example –a “band aide” – but it is at least something.  Much more substantial social and economic action is needed right away.

To support this effort, government must begin to talk and talk and talk … along with Nigeria’s greats, academics, businessmen, artists, and civil society who understand and believe in the rationale of subsidy removal.  (Yes, they do exist.) The SURE (Subsidy Re-investment and Empowerment Programme) intended to cushion the negative effects makes some good sense, but no one has heard much about it.  (Even this avid reader of the press first learned of SURE through blogs and list serves, not the press.)  The detractors should be quickly and actively engaged as well: the union leaders, the writers, the pundits, and even the opposition parties.  They will of course continue to take advantage of the fissures they now see, but the momentum can be slowed.

GET OUT THE “SURE” MESSAGE AND THEN SHOW WHAT IT CAN MEAN. Engage the population and give them a sense that they have some control of their own futures.  Mobilize professional communicators and public affairs experts along with all those who support the subsidy. Launch a communication campaign that describes how the subsidy removal can positively change lives and how the government plans to make that happen. Show people some examples of what it can and will do. It is time for the government to take concrete action on its transformation program for the people. 

By all rights, the State Governors should be in the front line of this communication and mobilization strategy. Reportedly, they support subsidy removal.  The money saved by the plan augments their budgets.  Let them explain and mobilize civil servants, politicians, the civil society, churches, concerned citizens, and teachers to explain as well.  Good communication, with managed demonstration of sincerity, can turn a divisive situation into a unifying opportunity.  It will not be easy, but it is one choice for government that is not optional. The next -- and likewise not optional --- choice is for the government to quickly, honestly, and effectively implement the SURE program.

Africa: Remembering Howard Wolpe, the Tireless Peacemaker

Note: Howard Wolpe was a founding member of the Niger Delta Working Group

All Africa

28 October 2011

Africa: Remembering Howard Wolpe, the Tireless Peacemaker

Steve McDonald

guest column

Washington, DC — I have known Howard Wolpe for over 30 years. When he took over as Chairman of the Africa Subcommittee in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1981, I had been living and working on the continent for a decade.

I had the chance to interact with him professionally and welcomed having a chairman of the important subcommittee who had lived and worked in Africa. Because he had done his doctoral research in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, where he lived for two years, he brought to his position not just a love of Africa, but a sense of its deeper character, culture, potential and promise.

It was a life-long love between Howard and Africa, on both sides. I worked closely with Howard in the 1980s during the fight to pass the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act and to move South Africa to a just future, helping put him in touch with South African leaders inside and outside the country. He strategized with Members from both sides of the aisle and both houses and brought together the bi-partisan coalition that eventually overrode the Reagan veto and set in motion the international pressures that were so important in influencing non-violent change in South Africa.

Just as important, however, was the dialogue that Howard joined with former Senator Dick Clark at the Aspen Institute to bring together black and white South African leaders across all party lines to seek understanding and common goals for their country's future. It was a role Howard would play later as U.S. Special Envoy as he negotiated the Lusaka and Sun City talks that brought an end to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Arusha Peace Process that did the same for Burundi.

 It was the next decade that allowed me to know the true visionary and statesman that was Howard Wolpe. He asked me to join him in an 'experiment' born of his despair as the Arusha Accords fell apart and Burundi returned to war in 2000. He drew upon his experience, long before his public life, of working to bring reconciliation and rebuild trust and collaborative capacities among community leaders and students in schools and towns torn apart by racial strife in a racist America.

He had seen communities come together again to rebuild their lives after they had been facilitated through a process that restored their sense of cohesion and interdependence - a process that changed how they saw each other and helped them "walk in the shoes of the other," as he put it.

Why, he asked me, could that not work at a national, state-building level in war-torn Burundi. We were to make that our central task for the next 10 years, with the support of the World Bank, United Nations, European Union, and the U.S., UK, Norwegian and Swedish governments.

By then we were both at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, where Lee Hamilton, president of the Center and former congressional colleague, asked Howard to take over the Africa Program. Howard also started a project on Leadership and Building State Capacity to reinforce the work we had started in Africa.

In Burundi, we helped facilitate the 2004 cease fire commission; the demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration of the various military factions; elections in 2005, and training for the new government, parliament and political parties in the following years. With a dedicated and professional team of Americans, Africans and Europeans, we did the same in the DRC, and later Liberia.

Howard's team designed a similar program for Timor Leste, and consulted on similar projects in Togo, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and elsewhere.

Even though Howard retired in 2010, he and I met three weeks ago with Burundian President, Pierre Nkurunziza, to gain his support for renewed political party work with his ruling party and the extra-parliamentary parties who left the country after the 2010 elections, reigniting violence and human rights violations and pushing Burundi towards another precipice.

Howard was excited at the prospect of re-engaging in this troubled land that he knew so well and loved. I asked him if his health would allow it. As usual, he dismissed that as a factor and focused on what he could do to help build a lasting peace in Burundi.

I can tell story after story of Howard's celebrity - Nelson Mandela calling him on his release from prison or sighting him across a crowded Congressional chamber and waving for Howard and his wife to join him; of his counseling President Clinton in Arusha as they tried to hold the angry ethnic groups together and move them to a signature of the peace accords; of the calls he got in the night from presidents, Congress members, cabinet members, military faction leaders, United Nations representatives; of stars like Peter, Paul and Mary or Harry Belafonte campaigning for him; of a dinner with actor Ben Affleck that excited his interest in channeling his resources and energy to help the people of the DRC. This list goes on and on.

But my favorite memories stem from his humanity - his mentoring of young Americans and Africans just beginning their careers, never failing to take time from his impossible schedule to counsel, guide, and assist; his understanding of and connections with the victimized and disconnected African populations; his endless hours, working around the clock, with patience and wisdom as he sat with warlords and presidents, dissidents and dictators, peasants and priests, teachers and technocrats, moving them to understand the need for change; his deep intellect and analytical clarity.

Most of all, I cherish memories of his constant sense of humor, often self-deprecating, which served him so well in breaking down barriers, and disarming the most recalcitrant of individuals to help them see the folly of pride and prejudice.

Howard was a rare leader for all these reasons. He loved what he did. He loved those he worked with, was unstintingly loyal and gave a new meaning to the word commitment.

Africa has lost a great champion. The world has lost a great peace maker. His family and friends, who are legion, have lost a loved one who can never be replaced.

Steve McDonald directs the Africa Program and Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Former Mich. Rep. Howard Wolpe, who helped pass US anti-apartheid act in 1986, dead at 71

Dear NDWG Readers,

With regret, we share the sad news that the Niger Delta Working Group has lost one of its most influential founding members, former Congressman and Ambassador (Dr.) Howard Wolpe.  He was a remarkable and committed man, a scholar, and a tremendous inspiration to all who sought peace and prosperity for the Great Lakes Region, the Niger Delta, Nigeria, and Africa.  He will be greatly missed by many throughout the US, Africa, and the World.  Our deepest condolences go to his family, his friends, and his loving colleagues over the years in Congress, the Africa Program in the Woodrow Wilson Center, and most recently the Department of State.

Deirdre

  

Washington Post (AP)  page A-11

27 October 2011

 

Former Mich. Rep. Howard Wolpe, who helped pass US anti-apartheid act in 1986, dead at 71

 

By Associated Press, Published: October 26

DETROIT — Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Howard Wolpe, who helped pass the federal anti-apartheid act in 1986, has died. He was 71.

 

The seven-term congressman had recently been ill with a heart condition, former staffer Ken Brock said Wednesday. He died Tuesday at his home in Saugatuck.

 

Wolpe, who also unsuccessfully sought the governor’s office in Michigan , served in Congress from 1979-1992. As chair of the U.S House Subcommittee on Africa, he authored and managed legislation imposing sanctions against South Africa for its system of white-minority rule.

 

Wolpe also later served as Special Envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes Region under President Bill Clinton “where he initiated peace talks and helped end civil wars in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo ,” Democratic Rep. John Dingell said in a statement.

 

“He was exceptionally bright and exceptionally committed to his mission,” said Battle Creek Dr. Joe Schwarz, who teaches at the University of Michigan ’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. “He had a real deep and abiding interest in African affairs where he made his name in Congress.”

 

Wolpe later served as director of the Africa Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

 

Before his election to Congress, Wolpe was a city commissioner in Kalamazoo and a member of Michigan ’s House of Representatives. After serving in Congress, Wolpe lost to Republican Gov. John Engler in Engler’s 1994 re-election bid.

 

U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow was Wolpe’s running mate in 1994.

 

“He dedicated his life to public service and brought the kind of civility to politics that is sorely missing today,” she said. “He stood for justice for people at home and across the world.”

 

Wolpe also taught at Western Michigan University , Michigan State and the University of Michigan .

 

He is survived by his wife, Julie Fletcher, and son, Michael, from a previous marriage.

Aggrieved Niger Deltans plan to march to Aso Villa

The Nation
21 October 2011

Aggrieved Niger Deltans plan to march to Aso Villa
By Bisi Olaniyi 1 hour ago

Aggrieved people of the Niger Delta are set to protest naked at Aso Rock, Abuja to show their displeasure over the lack of commensurate development in the crude oil and gas-rich region.

The protest is being coordinated by the Watchdog of Niger Delta (WDND) and the Niger Delta Peace Movement (NDPM).
In an interactive session with reporters in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, yesterday, the President of the WDND, Amachree Oprite, in company with his counterpart of the NDPM, John Walter, accused the Federal Government of insincerity in developing the Niger Delta.

The groups said: “We are tired of living with persistent anomalies against our region and people. If the Presidency fails to heed to making our region move forward at the expiration of this week, we shall protest naked in thousands, at the door and cosy environment of Aso Rock, Abuja.

Weekly Buzz: The UNEP Ogoni Environmental Report

Next Step – Clean it up! 

The UNEP Ogoni Environmental Report

Deirdre LaPin

7 August 2011

Note: see UNEP. 2011. Environmental Assessment of Ogoniland.  Nairobi: United Nations Environment Program. 

Available at http://www.unep.org/nigeria/

The long-awaited report from the United National Environmental Program (UNEP) on oil damage in the Ogoni area was presented to President Jonathan on Thursday 4 August in Abuja.  This important study, the first of its kind in the Niger Delta, was conceived well before 2006 by the Federal Government as part of the Ogoni reconciliation and peace process led by Father Matthew Kukah (recently named Bishop of Sokoto).  Intended as a major assessment of the impacts of oil production in the Ogoni region, UNEP in an early statement described the aim as to “clarify and de-mystify concerns expressed by local communities” (UNEP Field Report No. 2, November 2009). 

Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) suspended active production in Ogoniland in late 1993 as a response to growing resistance to industry presence led by the martyred freedom fighter and writer Ken Saro-Wiwa.  However, the company remained responsible during its withdrawal for monitoring and maintaining its installations, and especially the critical Trans-Niger pipeline serving Bonny Terminal.  It also left behind a number of spill sites.  Over the years the Company had mixed success in negotiating with local communities access to spills sites or achieving their complete remediation.  The impoverished local population also pursued informal oil production that centered on bunkering (oil pipeline tapping) and bush refining – increasing opportunities for further spills and pollution.  In keeping with the “polluter pays” principle, the operator SPDC joint venture funded the $9.5 million UNEP study.     

Last week the press had a field day with the freshly unveiled report.  (See an extensive list of news postings at the NDWG News and Resources blog – http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com.)  Journalists whisked together highlights and added spice from the region’s contested history.  Some articles cooked in the press kitchen missed key ingredients or simply got them mixed up. The best among them focused on the findings from the study’s careful scientific analysis, which led UNEP to the conclusion that “pollution has perhaps gone further and penetrated deeper than many may have previously supposed.” 

This forceful opinion stated in the Foreword by UNEP’s executive director Achim Steiner represents a long step beyond the study’s original technical terms of reference or the limited policy aims supporting reconciliation and “de-mystification.”  Now in 2011 UNEP’s thoughtful recommendations, while not assigning blame, point clearly to the need for a genuine shift in the priorities and practices of the oil industry and governmental regulatory agencies operating throughout the Niger Delta.  The muscular sub-text rippling throughout the report makes clear that nothing less than ending pollution and full remediation of Ogoniland (and indeed the whole Niger Delta region) should be accepted as an end point. 

The report offers guidance to address this aim. Steps include (a) a Transition Phase for detailed remediation and environmental management planning; (b) an immediate end to bunkering and artisanal refining; (c) creation of a Integrated Contaminated Soil Management Center, which could employ hundreds of local youth; (d) improved remediation management and harmonization and strengthening of various regulatory guidelines; and (e) implementation of eight emergency measures to protect the health and well being of residents in Ogoniland.  In an earlier interview, Mr. Steiner vowed, “I can assure you this report will get the world’s attention … For the first time we can actually begin to build a plan for remediation” (Ethical Corporation, Dec. 2010 – Jan. 2011).  It would indeed be a wonderful thing to see future action that goes beyond ink and rhetoric, but the path will not be easy.  Its course will require a huge measure of political will.

What the report does not fully reveal are the hazards and missteps that threatened to upend the study itself.  President Jonathan rightly notes that “an environmental war” has been waged in the region for 50 years.  Anyone familiar with the long, tortuous history of UNEP study will be moved to commend the Agency and the Presidential committee under Father Kukah for their perseverance and courage in seeking to bring the truth to light.  Their success was no less due to the peaceful and patient support of the long suffering residents of Ogoniland.  The technical and political processes driving the study were intrusive, time-consuming, and at times unclear.  For more than four years many strangers were welcomed into Ogoniland and facilitated by men and women in countless ways, despite deep felt grievances born of repeated past injustices from both public and private authorities. 

Mr. Steiner has described UNEP’s decision to undertake the study a “calculated risk” in the hope of spurring action to rectify what he perceives as a “scandal.”  Aware that they were entering a “contested area,” the Project team from UNEP’s Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch in Geneva packed its toolkit of technical acumen and good intentions and walked, somewhat naively, straight into a minefield.  The polemical dimension of the environmental war had created a seasoned cadre of Ogoni activists wary of good intentions.  Past experience made them quick to see a hidden agenda behind nearly every initiative. They had also become masters of the message, raising their suspicions in public statements and in the press.    

Field-level preparations in the first phase of the environmental study gained some momentum in late 2006.  Almost immediately, it proved to be a false start.  At a stakeholder engagement meeting in Gokana in November 2006, Rivers State Governor Peter Odili alluded to a lingering problem when he noted that “the exercise had nothing to do with Shell’s re-entry into Ogoni.”  For some years a rumor had circulated throughout the area that the reconciliation sought by Father Kukah’s committee was in fact meant to pave the way for SPDC to resume production in the area.  Adding to this suspicion was the discovery that the UNEP Project Coordinator based in Geneva was an environmental assessment specialist who had previously been employed in Oman by a national oil company advised by Shell.  For these and other reasons, the study was temporarily suspended until a revised agreement was signed with the Federal Government on 5 November, 2007.

By October 2009 UNEP opened a project office in Port Harcourt for its second phase under the direction of a field Project Coordinator Mike Cowing.  He was assisted by 23 international, national and local staff.  A spirit of good will and transparency seemed to infuse the project.  A web page at the UNEP site offered regular “field news updates” and reported the official “relaunch” of UNEP’s environmental assessment in Ogoniland in November 2009.  By May 2010 the scientific sampling of oil contaminated sites had begun in collaboration with the Rivers State University of Science and Technology.

In early August 2010 Mr. Cowing shared preliminary results from the field study at a UNEP press conference.  His comments, among others, observed that 10% of oil spills at the sites studied could be attributed to SPDC, implying that the others were related to the illicit local oil activity.  This assessment was not inconceivable for a region that had no formal oil production since 1993 but which did have an active ongoing informal oil bunkering and refining.  However, given that the study had not been completed, the comment was premature.  It was also unwise because it failed to underscore the significance of industry responsibility for its ageing infrastructure and slow remediation.  Instead it appeared to blame the victim.  On 23 August 2010 UNEP apologized for the statement. 

MOSOP withdrew its support to the study and complained of inadequate stakeholder engagement. (The report, however, says that 264 meetings attended by 23,000 people were held.)  Nevertheless, the project continued undeterred.  Its team studied over 4,000 samples of sediments from creeks, surface water, rainwater, fish and air -- including 142 samples from groundwater wells drilled specifically for the project and soil samples from 780 boreholes. In addition, over 5,000 medical records were examined. 

Last week both MOSOP and Amnesty International voiced reservations about the study (which they had not yet seen) on the eve of its submission to the Nigerian President.  Overall, the report seems to have won over most skeptics. Its scientific grounding is unprecedented for the Niger Delta and its careful wording reflects a desire to avoid blame and serve as a force for good.  Shell announced that it welcomed the study.

What Shell did not welcome was the (perhaps) coincidental timing of a judgment

In a British High Court on the day before the release of the UNEP report.  SPDC was ordered to pay compensation of about $410m to the Bodo community in Ogoniland for two large operational spills in 2008.  They resulted in water and soil contamination from 4,000 barrels spilled.  In an open letter, the SPDC managing director Mutiu Sunmonu called the spills a “tragedy,” saying that SPDC had always accepted responsibility for paying compensation for spills when they occur as a result of operational failure.  At the same time he reminded his audience of the damage to the environment being done by the illegal oil economy.

Remediation of Ogoniland must be the next step. President Jonathan has made muscular statements about the government’s position.  In accepting the report he vowed it would “not be put in a drawer.” But faced with an estimated $1 billion price tag for what may become the world's “most wide-ranging and long-term oil clean-up,” he has also requested UN and industry support in pursuing the remediation plan proposed. 

It will take more than money.  The President will need to firmly demonstrate his political will.  UNEP’s call to improve government regulations and oversight will require honest effort and continuous monitoring, ideally with some external involvement.  Its eight “emergency” recommendations -- to ensure safe water supply, signpost unsafe polluted areas, and mobilize the community to halt bunkering and artisanal refining – will require swift and concerted government effort at all levels.  Ending bunkering and refining in the well developed informal oil industry will present a special challenge.  The report notes that these activities are typically conducted in collusion with government, current or former industry staff, and security forces. 

Persuading youth into the legitimate economy could be significantly helped by UNEP’s proposal for establishing an Integrated Contaminated Soil Management Center.  Run properly on a commercial basis, this business could employ large numbers of local workers, especially the young unemployed men most likely to be attracted by the illicit oil economy. The center represents a huge opportunity, as treatment of contaminated soil, bioremediation, and protecting ground water are needed throughout the Niger Delta, well beyond the Ogoni region. 

Yesterday the Minister of the Environment, Hajiya Hadiza Mailafiya, assured reporters that the government was prepared to implement the report and that the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) would be responsible for cleaning up Ogoniland.  If NOSDRA were to take on such a complex technical and political exercise, it will need to make sharp improvements over its past performance.  Instead, the report proposes the creation of an Ogoniland Environmental Restoration Authority, supported by an extrabudgetary Restoration Fund, to oversee the implementation of its recommendations over the next ten years.  Perhaps the first step the Government needs to take is to read, digest, and carefully plan its response to the report. The time of vague assurances has long passed.  

Weekly Buzz Summary: 09 – 23 April 2011

News and Resources from the Niger Delta Working Group

Weekly Buzz

09 – 23 April 2011

Deirdre LaPin

SUMMARY

The past two weeks have been a roller-coaster, going from the “high” of a vastly improved – and internationally commended if  “not perfect” -- election process to the sudden outbreak of sporadic violence in 14 northern states in reaction to the election of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.  The President, who is from Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta, won without a runoff by garnering 59% of the total vote and 25% of the votes in all but four of the 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory – thereby exceeding the minimum of 24 required to ensure geographical spread.

Four previous issues of the “Buzz” have focused on election-related topics, and they can offer some helpful background if you need it. Two issues, ending 29 January and 19 February described the historic three-week voter registration exercise that took place between January 16 and February 9.  When all were counted and verified, prospective voters totaled 73.5 million (about 31m in the south, 41m in the north).  The final tally excluded over 850,000 “multiple registrants,” (of which twice as many were discovered in the north as in the south).   

The “Buzz” ending March 5, offers a detailed analysis of the registration, especially of 14m voters in the nine Niger Delta states.  Perhaps significantly, it noted a shortfall of 3 million voters from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s original projections of 17m for all nine states of the region. This was the only part of the country showing such a deficit.  For example, the NW geopolitical zone gained 6m registrants beyond the expected number.

In a “Buzz Brief” of April 8 some strong reasons were suggested for expecting a credible, free and fair exercise in the upcoming three rounds.  But the Brief also noted the caveat that a key unpredictable variable was fallout from the decision of the ruling PDP to override its customary “rotation” of the presidency between north and south in favor of the southern Ijaw Jonathan.  Not only is Mr. Jonathan a southerner, but he would become the nation’s first elected head of state from a minority outside the three hegemonic ethnic groups – Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba.  These groups have largely controlled Nigeria’s political fortunes throughout most of its history since Independence in 1960.  History suggests that their leaders are unlikely to relinquish their stranglehold on the country’s politics or resource revenues without a fight.

The current “Buzz” covers the two election rounds carried out thus far.  National Assembly (NASS) elections were held on April 9 for the House of Representatives and the Senate after a one-week postponement for mainly logistical reasons.  The contests yielded losses for the ruling PDP, which maintained a comfortable lead in the Senate but a more fragile hold on the House, for which the speaker lost his mandate. Final results are awaited because some of these races were put back by INEC until April 26 in order to correct misprinted ballots (specifically, 48 of the 360 federal constituencies and 15 of the109 senatorial districts).  

One week after the NASS elections Presidential Elections followed on April 16.  A bit more than one-half of all registrants participated in the vote for President, a higher participation than for the assembly vote. Turn-out was reportedly very high in the South-East and South-South, where President Jonathan is viewed by many as a native son. 

The third round of elections for State Governors and members of State Houses of Assembly are scheduled for Tuesday, April 26.  INEC and the people of Nigeria have overcome -- and patiently and intelligently managed -- significant hurdles to reach this stage in the electoral process.

Unfortunately, the last round will unfold in less auspicious circumstances than the first two polls.  Feelings are running very high in areas affected by the recent riots in the North. Officially, 240 victims are reported dead, but there are probably many hundreds more, together with an estimated 40,000 displaced. The Civil Rights Congress has reported over 500 dead in southern Kaduna State. Another news report mentioned 1,000 deaths in Zankowa, south Kaduna.  INEC too has lost many key assets, including some headquarters destroyed and hundreds of laptops and voter materials looted.  For these reasons, elections in worst-affected states Kaduna and Bauchi have been put off for two days until April 28.

Far worse has been the fate of hundreds of critical Youth Corpers (NYSC) serving as ad hoc poll personnel.  They have been understandably frightened away by heinous attacks on their colleagues.  At last count, 14 Corpers are dead and 20 missing.  One report has put the number of NYSC victims at 51. These young people have served their nation with great courage and commitment, and with a strong belief in Nigeria’s national project.  Their deaths – as those of all victims -- are an unspeakable tragedy. 

Early in the week a Corper named Ukeoma Ikechukwu posted the following message on his Facebook page:

Even after forcing underaged voters on me they wanted me to give them the remaining ballot paper to thumb print. Thank God for the police and am happy i could stand for God and my nation. To all corps members who stood despite these threats esp. In the north bravo! Nigeria! Our change has come."

To his great credit, the pressures Ukeoma described did not dim his hope in the future. Shortly after, he went missing and his corpse was found some days later. An unverified photo in circulation suggests that he was burnt alive.

It is as if the north has been struck by a mad orgy of collective outrage.  The anger in part stems from the persona of the announced winner, who is a Christian from outside the region. More so by a loss of hope among masses of less educated youth in the very popular and seasoned candidate Muhammadu Buhari, whose rhetoric of uncorrupt service to the people promised change from a dozen years of irresponsible government by the winning party.  Today, ordinary Nigerians in all parts of the country, especially in much of the North and the Niger Delta, have little useful education and economic opportunity.  Youth everywhere in the country have therefore approached the elections with the expectation of change, and perhaps even salvation. But while there is a broad agreement on the political roots of their diminished condition, they do not all share the same notion of what or who “change” means, and that is a source of cleavage.

In the post-presidential election period Mr. Buhari’s young party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), has charged that the electoral process which INEC struggled to perfect was flawed in execution.  The claims are in keeping with the candidate’s own early warnings and predictions. Chief complaints are that hundreds of ballots bore illegitimate thumbprints (not matched to actual voters) and that reporting and especially collation of results were deliberately skewed.  The use of computer technology, which is not well understood by most Nigerians, lent credence to claims of sophisticated forms of manipulation.   Results from the South-South and South-East geopolitical zones were singled out for criticism because of their relatively high rates of registered voter turnout.  (Could this be at least partly explained by their relatively low rates of voter registration, relative to population?)  Presence of “voters” who were underage, or not indigenous, was also reported by a number of election observers in the North.

It is broadly recognized that there is probably some truth in these charges, but no one knows yet if they were widespread.  Nevertheless, many wish that in the face of Mr. Jonathan’s resounding lead, Mr. Buhari had chosen the statesman’s path by recognizing the winner and encouraging his supporters to calmly allow the results to stand pending further scrutiny by INEC and the courts.  Instead, the CPC rejected the election results with provocative statements that some believe encouraged reaction from its followers.  And the party stepped in to calm the violence only two days after it had begun. Faith in the very architecture of Nigeria’s electoral democracy has been shaken, and more seriously, trust has been undermined in the people’s common achievement of an election which was broadly viewed as being the most free and fair in decades.

Fingers are crossed that the men and women of the country will muster well-earned pride in a much improved electoral process that has gained kudos from many expert observers inside and outside the country.  The past weekend has been filled with remorse, rumors and accusations.  A climate of agitation and distrust has followed in the wake of the northern unrest.  Hopefully, the Youth Corper Ukeoma’s spirited rallying cry “our change has come” will mobilize the voters’ will and discipline to participate in the final round.  This of course is their best lawful way to express their preferences for change that, along with Ukeoma, so many of them rightly seek. 

Mr. Jonathan will need to listen very well to the cries for help expressed by the long-suffering people of his country.  Building on his reputation for humanity, a new style of national leadership should be his first order of business.  The President will need to build public trust in his government and firmly hold pubic officials to standards of probity, responsibility, and equity. Converting patronage and inefficiency into development investment will put Nigeria in the direction of realizing its great potential.

(Detailed commentary for this Weekly Buzz is forthcoming. Meanwhile, for background articles and supplementary data, please see news posts at http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com.)

Buzz Brief: The 2011 Nigerian Elections and Reasons for Optimism

Buzz Brief: The 2011 Nigerian Elections and Reasons for Optimism

Nigerians will go to the polls again tomorrow in the first of three April election rounds. A sea change in public expectation and confidence in this upcoming franchise has taken place since the last failed effort of 2007.  The most important shift has been in national attitude.  Nigeria’s men and women clearly hunger for – and will work hard and sacrifice for – a successful and credible outcome as a matter of national pride.  Sustaining the momentum among voters and poll workers will involve both challenge and serious commitment.  If all goes well, nearly every voter by the end of the 2011 round will have visited a polling station six times, twice for registration and vetting of voter rolls, once for the postponed national assembly election of April 2, and three more times on April 9, 16, and 26. That is a high opportunity cost but a price many are willing to pay. 

There is a good chance these good people will succeed in the same way the country emerged in a spirit of “One Nigeria” from the Civil War in 1970, and again in 1999 after the more destructive second “war” on their institutions after years of harsh and venal military rule.  Once more citizens are consolidating a collective effort to redeem their federal democratic system through a process that hopefully both national and international observers will assess as “free and fair.”   The 2011 election is only a start in this long process toward establishing a participatory government that is sustained, responsible, and transparent.

The upcoming election rounds will not be perfect. No elections are … in any country.  But there are good reasons for optimism.  Professor Attahiru Jega, the recently appointed Chairman of the National Election Commission, has brought with him a team of technocrats and a spirit of dedicated professionalism, modernism, neutrality and even perfectionism which more than offset some clear lapses in management and oversight.  Many friendly nations have adopted a position of “tough love” toward the national administration and INEC’s election management and have engaged senior personalities in direct, hands on support and assistance.   The Nigerian security forces have more than ever before readied their cadres through training, discipline and planning to thwart in advance attempts to destabilize or discredit the electoral process through violence or criminal acts.   Civil society organizations have mobilized thousands of monitors and observers at all levels with INEC’s sincere encouragement and have established communication networks using every available medium and tool. Most important a great number of people of the country have begun to believe that their votes will truly count. What a change from the days when only two of my sizeable staff in Port Harcourt bothered to visit the polls a dozen years ago.

As always, there are some disgruntled elements and even spoilers afoot. News reports and personal communications speculate on how residual rancor of the “rotation” debate inside the PDP could play out in the form of sabotage, rigging, or worse. Local politicians in Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom states have gone for one another with a vengeance in past weeks and months.  The stakes are very high in a country in which holding public office is the most direct route to personal enrichment. (That should change.)

Even so, history has shown that when Nigeria wants something to work, its people will make it work.  This looks to be one of those moments, bolstered by the “winds of change” from North Africa and the Middle East.  The air is full of new possibilities.  The chances are high that Nigeria’s people will pull off another restoration, this time in the form of a credible, free and fair election.  If they do succeed, they will be the biggest winners of all. Then they will need more work to sustain the rights and gains they have won.  

Deirdre LaPin

April 8, 2011

BREAKING NEWS: From one election postponement to another… and another. Polls finally pushed back to April 9, 16, and 26.

BREAKING NEWS: 

Here is what happened in a nutshell.  On the afternoon of Saturday, April 2, Professor Jega, Chairman of INEC, understood that Nigeria’s 120,000 polling stations had not received any or all of their election materials by noon – the moment at which accreditation of voters would end and election of National Assembly members would begin.  Most important, the critical summary Form EC 8A had not been distributed.  Without it, elections at each site could not be certified or collated nationwide. In addition, names of candidates or party logos were missing on some printed materials that did arrive at polling stations.  Corrections were demanded.

Initial consultations led INEC to announce that the April 2 national assembly round would be shifted by two days to Monday, April 4.  Not enough time, said many opposition party bosses. Forty of the 53 contesting parties said they would withdraw participation.  So, INEC briefly toyed with the notion of combining the first and second rounds, thereby holding both national assembly and presidential elections on April 9.  A flurry of meetings and assessments led to the conclusion that this burden on election workers and voters was a recipe for confusion and distortion of results.  Logically, the whole exercise seems to have been shifted by one week to a new series of elections to be held April 9, 16, and 26 in order originally planned.  

Meanwhile, we are still awaiting the Abuja Federal Court of Appeal final ruling on the gubernatorial elections in Bayelsa and Cross River and three other states.  (It was expected March 31.)  Will the elongated tenures of the governors who were re-elected following court challenges remain standing?  This would push elections into 2012 in those states.  Or, will the elections go forward in this year’s round?  Mr Jega would certainly like to know and so would everyone else in the affected states – and soon. 

Questions on the postponed national assembly elections April 2:

·         Cause: Poor planning? Ineptitude by some?  Logistical constraints? Poor communication? Contractocracy? Lack of political will or political disaffection? Sabotage? Or a mix of the above?

·         Oversight: Did INEC, despite Jega’s security precautions, have adequate internal monitoring of staff and contractors? Within the permitted limits, were the some 140-member EU election observer team – many of whom arrived weeks ago – truly able to assess the level of preparedness? And did external observers from many friendly countries show the insight and courage to read conditions and offer actionable advice (and perhaps assistance) in a timely manner?

·         Impact: Will INEC’s false start poison popular confidence in the series of three elections and overall results?  Was this loss of confidence someone’s underlying objective?  Any cleansing must be done inside and outside INEC, and Jega has only a short time to investigate.

Let us all recall the wonderful observation of Nigeria’s long-standing student and friend Sylvia Leith-Ross, who described Nigeria over 70 years ago as a place where “the possible is so frequently bungled and the impossible so elegantly accomplished.” 

May Professor Jega, his team, and the people of Nigeria once again achieve the impossible -- an elegant and credible election -- through characteristic hard work and good will.  Nigeria CAN do it.

Weekly Buzz: 20 February – 5 March 2011

News and Resources from the Niger Delta Working Group

Weekly Buzz

20 February – 5 March 2011

Deirdre LaPin

This issue of the “Buzz” is devoted to election-related topics.  Other subjects – the Amnesty, MEND, and the “Winds of Change” -- will be treated in future installments. For background articles and supplementary data, please see http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com

73,528,040 are registered to vote: totals exceed expectations for country and most states – but not the Niger Delta.

As promised, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) published the final figures for its ambitious voter registration exercise that took place between 15 January and 7 February 2011.  The nation-wide outcome of 73,528,040 registered voters far exceeded INEC’s statistical estimate of 65,783,046, or the “70,000 voters” popularly reported in the press. 

The table below shows projected estimates for each state by the close of registration 22 January, the provisional totals published on 21 February, and the final (“actual”) totals published on 2 March.  Initial voter rolls were posted on 14 February. Their verification relied chiefly on two methods: (1) vetting and correction of voter names by the voters themselves between February 14 to 18 and (2) computerized data analysis.  The direct data capture (DDC) technology used for the registration was designed to reject duplicate attempts to register on each of 130,000 individual DDC-equipped computers. A subsequent analysis across the entire voter data set was undertaken following the vetting period using AFIS (Automated Fingerprint Identification System) Analysis. It revealed 870,612 duplicate registrations in the provisional figures published for 21 February. They were ultimately purged from the system. 

These duplicate voter errors could mean that thousands of fraudulent voter cards may be in circulation, requiring careful checks against voter identification on all of the three voting days scheduled for April.  This risk is all the more worrying because some cards are reportedly being purchased from voters at nominal fees by interested parties and transferred to others.  This practice serves as a variation on ballot box stuffing.   

Niger Delta. INEC’s original estimated projections for voter registration showed that Niger Delta voters constituted one-quarter of the national total.  The final result was a shade under one-fifth. Marked gaps between the estimates and actual results occurred for the Niger Delta region overall, which totaled 14,302,295 or 82% fewer voters than expected. Six of the nine states similarly fell short. Abia, Delta, and Imo States each had a deficit of around one million voters, ranging from one-third to one-quarter less than the estimated number.  Bayelsa State ended with only 66% of the registrants expected, although it gained 25% over the provisional 21 February totals. Final tallies for Cross River, Edo, and Rivers States were closely aligned with the estimated projections, while Ondo State missed by nearly one-quarter.  Akwa Ibom alone exceeded the expected total -- by nearly 40%.

INEC REGISTRATION FOR THE NIGER DELTA: EXPECTED, PROVISIONAL AND ACTUAL

Projections January 26, 2011

Provisional Totals February 21, 2011

Final Totals March 2, 2011

(Adapted from The Nation, January 27, 2011 and inecnigeria.org)

For full national data, including duplicate registration figures by state, see http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com

State	2006 Census	22 Day Projection	Provisional Totals 21 Feb.	Actual Totals 2 March
•Abia (SE)	2,845,380	2,552,888	1,481,191	1,524,484
•Akwa Ibom  (SE)	3,902,051	1,158,449	1,714,781	1,616,873
•Bayelsa  (SS)	1,704,515	895,668	472,389	591,870
•Cross River  (SS)	2,892,988	1,137,872	1,018660	1,148,486
•Delta  (SS)	4,112,445	2,952,158	1,900.055	2,032,191
•Edo (SS)	3,233,366	1,541,188	1,412,225	1,655,776
•Imo  (SE)	3,927,563	2,535,645	1,611, 715	1,687,293
•Ondo  (SW)	3,460,877	2,124,091	1,558,975	1,616,091
•Rivers  (SS)	5,198,716	2,513,418	2,419,057	2,429,231
South-South TOTALS		10,198,753	8,937167	9,474,427
+ 3 states		+7,212,624	4,651881	+4,827,868
Niger Delta  TOTALS		17,411,377	13,589,048	14,302,295
NATIONAL TOTALS	140,431,790	65,783,046	67,764,327	73,528,040
Niger Delta % of national total		26.5%	20%	19.5%

National. The blog Nigerianmuse.com noted increases between the provisional and final figures in 30 States and the Federal Capital Territory.[1] Differences in aggregate numbers between the North and South appeared to widen at each step -- voter registration, verification, and analysis.  The table below illustrates.

In total the South showed 31,347,802 verified registrants, while the North had 41,236,765, or 30% more voters that the South.  There were some noticeable (and some suggest worrying) disparities in “estimated,” “provisional” and “actual” figures for some northern states, conspicuously in Benue and Niger. 

In general, the Northern geo-political zones registered considerably more voters than estimated, while the Southern zones registered fewer voters.  In addition to expanding its final total 2 ½ times beyond the expected figures, Niger State recorded more duplicate voters than any single Southern zone.  For reasons not yet explained, duplicate registrations in the North were more than twice the number uncovered in the South.

Current challenges to free and fair elections.

Three principal challenges to a “one person one vote” election in April 2011 are (1) duplicate registration and other forms of rigging, (2) last-minute petitions for adjudication by the courts and judicial decisions that could effectively derail election procedures, and (3) insecurity and voter intimidation.

Independent assessments of voter registration and electoral procedure

The US government, the EU, and the UK have expressed modest satisfaction with Nigeria’s registration effort, and the US and UK will contribute about $36m toward the voting exercise for “mobility and logistics.”

A Pre-election Assessment Team from the International Republican Institute was led by former Ghana President, the Honorable John Kufuor.  Its report, published on 2 March, offered a cautiously optimistic appraisal of voting preparations thus far.  Noting the challenges above among others, the team recommended that –

·         all parties sign a Code of Conduct planned for March 8

·         adequate training be assured for all poll workers

·         all candidates and political parties adhere to financial disclosure rules

·         a vigorous voter education program be undertaken before voting starts

·         persons who engage in electoral offenses and violence be prosecuted

·         equal access to the media be assured to all candidates.

Project 2011 Swift Count -- a joint initiative of the Federation of Muslim Women’s Associations in Nigeria (FOMWAN); Justice, Development and Peace/Caritas Nigeria (JD-PC), Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), and Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) – issued a monitoring report on the voter registration exercise indicating some misgivings about process that may have affected results, but it noted that, overall, citizens appeared to be satisfied with the registration process.  (This view preceded a later outcry over statistical anomalies.)

INEC REGISTRATION FOR SELECTED STATES AND GOE-POLITICAL ZONES:

EXPECTED, PROVISIONAL, ACTUAL AND DUPLICATE

Adapted from The Nation, January 27, 2011 & Nigerianmuse.com, March 6, 2011

STATE	Estimated (22 Jan)	Provisional (21 Feb)	Final or “Actual” (2 March)	Duplicate Registration Recorded
SELECTED STATES
Adamawa (NE)	2,781,188	1,714,860	1,816,084	9,773
*Benue (NC)	952, 251	1,415,162	2,390,883	42,042
Borno (NE)	1,858,734	2,730,368	2,380,957	21,164
Kano	3,702,160	5,135,415	5,027,297	10,784
*Niger	811,045	721,478	2,175,421	142,040
Taraba	872,014	1,308,106	1,336,221	41069
REGION
SOUTH-WEST	15,550,350	14,298,356	14,296,163	63,911
SOUTH-EAST	10,010,524	7,028,560	7,577,212	75,669
SOUTH-SOUTH	10,198,753	8,937,057	9,474,427	128,088
Total South	35,759,627	30,263,973	31,347,802	267,668
NORTH-WEST	13,805,375 (w/o Katsina)	18,900,543	19,803,689	279,050
NORTH-EAST	9,515,847	10,038,119	10,749,059	101,661
NORTH-CENTRAL	6,041,542	7,675,369	10,684,017	221,280
Total North	29,362,764 +3,000,000 (est.Katsina)	36,614,031	41,236,765	601,991
Total FCT	634,568	886,323	943,473	953
Total Country	65,783,046[2] +3,000,000 (est.Katsina)	67,764,327	73,528,040	870,612

[1] SW:Ekiti (+1.9%), Ogun (+3.8%),Ondo (+3.7); SE: Abia (+2.9%), Anambra (+14.4%), Ebonyi (+19.9%), Enugu (0.2%), Imo (+4.7%), SS: Bayelsa (+25.3%), Cross-River (+12.8%), Delta (+7.0%), Edo (+17.2%), Rivers (0.4%): NW: Jigawa (+8.7%), Kaduna (+9.52%), Katsina (+6.7%), Kebbi (+2.1%), Sokoto (+9.8%), Zamfara (+4.5%) NE: Adamawa (+5.9%), Bauchi (+37.5%), Gombe (+4.1%), Taraba (+2.1%), Yobe (16.2%); NC: Benue (+68.9%), Kogi (+8.3%), Kwara (+3.3%), Niger (+201.5%), Nassarawa (+13.5%), Plateau (13.9%), FCT (+6.4%)

[2] Total is correct, but varies slightly from zonal totals above

Since the publication of final voter registration figures and the double registrations, a fair number of commentators and opposition parties have been cautious, and at times caustic.  Attention has focused on the great leaps between the provisional and final numbers, despite the high number of multiple registrations.  The top ten states for double registrations were Niger (142,040), Katsina (132,062), Kaduna (95,563), Rivers (42,309), Benue (42,042), Taraba (41,069), Cross-River (39,085), Anambra (33,747), Jigawa (23,148) and Borno (21,164). 

The multiple registrations are huge numbers. They demand explanation.  

Nigeria’s history of blatant election rigging is a nagging backdrop to the discussion. Appearances suggest that persons – at least in some states -- are “gaming” the system. The press has carried statements about “lack of oversight for voter registration” or “a flawed, unfair process.”  "We are very uncomfortable with those figures, Lai Mohammed, the national publicity secretary of the ACN said to a NEXT reporter. “And until INEC comes up with very rational explanations about those figures, then there is cause for serious concern."  The opposition (ACN, ANPP) has demanded that INEC publish the names of offenders behind the massive multiple registration, implying that they favored the ruling PDP and should be prosecuted.  The pot, however, may be calling the kettle black.

Thus far, INEC has not named persons who may have falsified registration results.  However, Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman was quoted as saying, “We even caught some high profile double registrants, and we will start with them in the area of prosecution.”  Jega has suggested that some of the difference between the provisional and final figures may be attributed to "massive under-reporting" from the field, where staff were under time pressure to turn in daily data.  Furthermore, computer testing of the data sets for multiple registrants was not carried out at the same time for all states.  In some cases analysis preceded publication of the provisional figures, while in others it was carried out afterward. 

The spotlight trained on Niger State as the chief outlier is further cause for concern. This state not only recorded the highest number of duplicates (140,000) but also trebled its number of registrants between the provisional and final tallies, rising from an initial figure of 721,485 and an expected total of 811,045 to a final 2,175,421 registered voters.  In a review with the press on 3 March, Dr. Jega affirmed that he has formed a committee to scrutinize the data from Niger State. (Niger is also the home of former head of state and early presidential contestant General Ibrahim Babangida).

Meanwhile, observers have taken heart in the statement credited to President Goodluck Jonathan during a presidential rally in Benue State: “Though I am contesting, I will not allow anyone to manipulate the votes for me.” This is a welcome sentiment favoring transparency.  Unfortunately, it was quickly shrouded in the press by a later comment from former President Obasanjo at a PDP rally in Lagos that seemed to reaffirm his well-known PDP battle cry of “do-or-die” during past elections.  He later explained (to an incredulous public) that the phrase was a media mistranslation of a Yoruba song which he had performed.

Spanners in the works: courts rule against holding gubernatorial elections in five states and rule in favor of re-ordering the election sequence.

Dr. Jega, the INEC Chairman, is known for his calm and rational demeanor.  Even so, the number and nature of last-minute intrusions by the judiciary into his well-laid plans would fray the nerves of a saint, Muslim or Christian. 

Candidate petitions. By 3 March Dr. Jega lamented that 200 petitions had been submitted to the Commission, of which 70 were ex-parte orders, that is, based on one party's request without hearing from the other side.  Most of these cases were submitted by aggrieved aspirants who have increasingly turned to the courts in order to force INEC to recognize them as legitimate candidates or to prevent their parties from substituting another candidate in their place. Arguments often turn on the number of votes received, alleged procedural bias and error by their parties, or on the confusion created by the conduct of parallel congresses in some states which lead inevitably to litigation. An avalanche of petitions and court orders can slow and indeed undermine INEC’s work.  Lists of candidates are published in good faith, whereupon the Commission may be compelled to change some of the names or suspend publication awaiting a court decision.  Dr. Jega has said: “What is happening now is a very worrying situation. The commission had received a series of court orders which have led to continuous substitution of candidates from political parties.”

In the Niger Delta, where all but one of the nine 2007 governorships were challenged in court, some key 2011 candidacies have been contested.  

·         Incumbent governor of Akwa Ibom State, Godswill Akpabio, was challenged on procedural grounds by an opponent in the PDP party primary, and the poll of party delegates had to be repeated.  The Governor won handily.  Nevertheless, a PDP aspirant Frank Okon asked the Federal High Court in Abuja to stop INEC from recognizing Mr. Apkabio, although he could offer little but “assertions” as evidence.  On February 25 Judge Kafarati ruled that the suit lacked merit.  "The suit was more of an academic exercise, but since the court has been approached, the door will not be shut against the plaintiff but rather the court will look at the merit of his case and having looked at the merit, it is of my view that the suit lacks merit, on this ground I strike out the case," said the fair-minded judge.

·         The second-term candidacy of Theodore Orji, incumbent PDP governor in Abia State, was barred by court order following a challenge by his rival Chief Ikechi Emenike.  The federal high court in Abuja, after two postponements, eventually dismissed the suit on 28 February. (See Weekly Buzz for 021911.)   Orji is not popular with large segments of his constituency, especially in the kidnap-ridden city of Aba.  He was loudly booed at a PDP rally in a sports complex on 25 February, for the second time. The court cautioned him to “extend an olive branch” to his challenger Emenike, who enjoys wide grassroots support. That was not enough for the challenger’s counsel, who swiftly promised to appeal the decision.  In an embarrassing sequel on 3 March, Governor Orji walked out of a gubernatorial debate, reportedly amidst jeers and shouts “Go, we don’t want you” from a crowd of supporters from the PPA, a party which Orji had earlier abandoned in favor of the PDP.

·         In a related issue, an appeal court in Port Harcourt reinstated the former PDP deputy governor Peremobowei Ebebi of Bayelsa State, who was impeached by the state assembly for dereliction of duty on 24 June 2010. The decision shook both the state and Ebebi himself, who had already  crossed over to the Labor Party to support the rival of Governor Sylva, Timipre Alaibe. Governor Sylva says he will not recognize Ebebi’s reinstatement and has retained Werinipre Seibarugu as his de facto deputy.  Bayelsa, Goodluck Jonathan’s home state, now has two deputy governors…

But that wrinkle is minor when compared to the next one.

Lenth of tenure in office of sitting governors. Far more disruptive are broad rulings on points of electoral law that are still unsettled in Nigeria’s young democracy.  Two such rulings have up-ended INEC’s election program and add to its burden of work. 

The first decision excludes five governors from contesting the April polls. On 23 February a high court overturned INEC’s decision last August to include them.  These governors won their seats in 2007, but their elections were later voided by tribunals.  The governors were subsequently re-elected in new polls. INEC determined that because they will have spent four total years in service, their tenures would end at the same time as other governors -- on May 29, 2011.

Judge Adamu Bello of the Federal High Court  Abuja disagreed.  He chose to interpret the 1999 Constitution literally, which he said sets the “tenure of governors … from the day they took their oath of office and oath of allegiance.”  And, each governor who competed in a re-run election took a fresh oath of office.  Hence, four more years. 

But… wait.  By assent of the National Assembly and two-thirds of the state assemblies, the election law was amended in 2010 to allow prior time in office to be included in reckoning the governors’ periods of service.  INEC has aligned its

Niger Delta: Gubernatorial Incumbents and Terms of Office

All PDP Governors have won party primaries for second term runs

  (adapted from Wikipedia)

State	Current Governor	Party	Elected/Took office	Tenure of Office Ends
Abia State	***Theodore Orji	PDP	2007/ Upheld 11 Feb. 2009	May 29, 2011
Akwa Ibom State	Godswill Akpabio	PDP	2007	May 29, 2011
Bayelsa State	**Timipre Sylva	PDP	2007/ Rerun, 24 May 2008	May 29, 2011 or May 29, 2012?
Cross River State	**Liyel Imoke	PDP	2007 Rerun, 23 Aug. 2008	May 29, 2011 or August 28, 2012?
Delta State	Emmanuel Ewetan Uduaghan	PDP	2007/ Rerun, 8 Jan. 2011	May 29, 2011 or Jan. 10, 2015?
Edo State	*Adams Oshiomhole	ACN	2008 Replaces Osunbor  Tribunal, 11 Nov. 2008	Nov 10, 2012
Imo State	****Sir Ikedi Ohakim	PDP	2007/ Upheld July 2010	May 29, 2011
Ondo State	*Olusegun Mimiko	LP	2009 Substituted for Agagu by Court 23 Feb. 2009	February 24, 2013
Rivers State	Rotimi Amaechi	PDP	2007 Replaces Omehia Tribunal, June 2007	May 29, 2011

*Not running in the 2011 elections because their 4-year terms are not complete

** Federal High Court ruled in Feb. 2011 that these 2 governors (out of 5 nationally) will not contest until 2012 because, according to the original election laws, 4 years had not elapsed since their re-election, despite their prior time in office. The ruling does not apply to Gov. Uduaghan because his rerun followed the amendment of the Election Law, which credits time already served in office.  The court claims that the amended law is not retro-active in the case of the 2 governors. INEC has appealed the ruling. 

***Switched from PPA to APGA, before joining PDP in 2010

****Switched from PPA to PDP in 2009

decision on the governors’ tenure with the new law. The relevant provision reads: “In the determination of the four-year term, where a re-run election has taken place and the person earlier sworn in wins the re-run election, the time spent in the office before the date the election was annulled shall be taken into account.”

But, said Judge Bello, the amended law is not retro-active for governors who took oaths of office before the new law came into force through the Electoral Act of 2010.  Furthermore, those governors were the very parties who had brought the

case before the court. His ruling suited them because they wanted more time in office.  Ruling in their favor, Judge Bello extended their tenures.  Two of the five are from the Niger Delta.  If Bello’s ruling stands, Governor Timipre Sylva (Bayelsa) will leave office on 29 May 29 2012 and Governor Liyel Imoke’s tenure (Cross River) will end on 28 August 2012.  The possibility has also been raised that Governor Uduaghan (Delta), who won a re-run election in December 2010, might join the suit. But, because the election law was amended before his re-run, the provisions of the new law would seem to apply in his case.  He will be credited with nearly four years served in office and will therefore contest in the April polls.  (There is still some confusion on this point.)

INEC has appealed the ruling on the tenure of the five governors and has also requested order of stay of judgment pending the determination of the appeal. 

Should Jega’s request be denied, only five states in the Niger Delta will hold gubernatorial elections in April.  Bayelsa and Cross River (and possibly Delta) will not have gubernatorial contests.  Two more states – Ondo and Edo – will sit out the 2011 vote because the governors in these states replaced 2007 winners via election tribunals.  They will not have served a full four-year term and therefore will run in 2011.

Order of elections. A second broad court ruling at the eleventh hour on 3 March was interpreted by the media and most observers to overturn INEC’s planned order of elections.  The present sequence is National Assembly – Senate and House of Representatives (April 2), Presidential elections (April 9) and governorship and state houses of assembly elections (April 16).  This order was set following a decision by the National Assembly to amend – yes, a second time – the 2010 Electoral Act which it had just passed into law a few months earlier.  In essence, the amendment put the presidential election before the governorship poll.  (In Section 25 of the 2010 Electoral Act, it was the other way round.) Justice Ibrahim Auta of the the Federal High Court in Abuja was reported to have concluded that the amendment to the Act was “illegal, unconstitutional, null and void."

There was a motive to this seeming madness. The suit in this case was brought by the Labor Party (LP), which feared a snowball effect in favor of whatever party won the presidential elections (likely to be the PDP). The Labor Party asked that order of election be reversed, starting with the State Assemblies and Governors, followed by the National Assembly elections, and with the Presidential election coming last.  The Judge was reported to have ruled broadly in their favor, holding that the National Assembly did not have the power exercised in the amendment to set the dates for elections.  That authority rests with INEC, he said, which must be guided by the (un-amended) 2010 Electoral Act.  A week later, the judge was quoted saying he had been misunderstood.  On the contrary, a judicial spokesman said, *the court has no power whatsoever to order INEC not to go ahead as per the time table for the April 2011 Elections as provided by INEC.” End of story?

If the issue of election sequence seemed a media tempest in judicial teapot, another pending case below could prevent President Jonathan from his bid to retain his job.

Zoning provision in the PDP constitution. Last December 1 the Federal High Court in Abuja dismissed a suit brought by one Sani Aminu Dutsinma seeking to stop President Goodluck Jonathan from running for president in the 2011 election on the platform of the PDP. His reason?  INEC should force the PDP to respect a provision in its constitution (Article 7.2c) that encourages zoning and rotation of public offices among Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. The court ruled that the provision was a matter internal to the party, and not within INEC jurisdiction.  Dutsinma then turned to the Court of Appeal for a clarification of INEC’s responsibilities in enforcing party adherence to electoral guidelines (including respecting the party’s own constitution.) The PDP and INEC have asked for a dismissal of the suit, and a ruling is expected on 17 March. Stay tuned.

INEC bars PDP candidates from contesting in Cross River State. Bolts from the blue can come from INEC as well.  The Commission has refused to accept the result of the PDP state-level primaries in Cross River State.  The Resident Election Commissioner determined that the state PDP failed to comply with the Electoral Law because it did not hold congresses before the primaries – a requirement in the election law.  The PDP has sued the Commission at the High Court.  Again, stay tuned.

Violence mars election events, damages infrastructure, and rattles nerves.

Election violence and intimidation, using hired gang members or militias, has been a recurring feature of Nigerian elections and has expanded incrementally from 1999 to 2003 and 2007.   

Security framework. INEC chairman Dr. Jega has set up an “Inter-Agency Committee on Security” and has conferred with security agencies on a framework for assuring “free, fair and credible elections.” Broad tasks for Police, Army, Navy, Air Force, SSS and Para-military organizations were laid out on 24 February.  As the National Security Advisor (NAS) Azazi noted in January, security is everybody’s business. Civil society has therefore called for more detailed plans at local level within the framework and a defined role for their sector in order to complement official efforts.  Malfeasance among security staff has occurred in the past.  In addition, there has been notable absence of prosecutions in prior elections for clear cases of election misconduct or violence. 

In principle, the division of labor worked out among the services includes the following:

·         The NAS is responsible for contacting service chiefs to assist INEC. He will increase security surveillance during election, monitor the performance of security agencies and dissuade public officials from misusing security staff for personal or inappropriate purposes.

·         The Nigeria Police are in the front lines. They are to maintain order at polling units and other INEC facilities and provide security for election equipment and materials. They must also “dissuade” public officials from misusing police security details. Not only must police arrest and prosecute law breakers, but they may take pre-emptive action by monitoring the local area for suspicious movements, illegal activities and criminal hideouts.

·         The Army is to provide surveillance, restrict movement as required on election day and organize standby response and evacuation squads in event of crisis.

·         Navy and Air Force will support other services with increased surveillance of borders and waterways (together with Customs and Immigration) and provide transportation of equipment and personnel as needed,

·         The SSS will closely monitor elections and share intelligence on potential trouble makers or illegal activity, including weapons trafficking. Others like the National Drug Law enforcement agency are to increase surveillance of hard drug production and distribution.

The “Code of Conduct” to be signed by political parties on March 8 contains several provisions for resolving disputes.  It also includes the following requirements:  "No political parties shall sponsor or allow the wearing of uniforms and emblems depicting militant activities or allow the carrying of offensive weapons during rallies and marches, and at polling and registration centers or at any political event"  and "All political parties and their candidates shall refrain from the use of violent or extra judicial means in expressing their non-acceptance of election results."  In the end, 48 of the 63 parties signed the Code of Conduct, excluding the PDP, whose reasons, some said, may have been linked to provisions barring the use of government funds for campaign and voting activities. (See http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com for the full text of the Code of Conduct.)

Campaign-related violence – a few examples in especially “troubled” states, South and North

·         Thugs (assumed PDP) in Bende local government in Abia State tried to stop the campaign train of the former governor of the state Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu from going into the town to campaign.  Kalu is now the Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA) candidate for Abia North Senatorial district for the April election. The youths, who said they were hired by a man in Umuahia, were unaware of their target. On seeing Kalu emerge from his car, they greeted him as patron and leader and stepped aside.

·         Two weeks earlier, on 21 February, an explosion rocked a PPA rally n Aba, commercial hub of Abia State, organized by Chief Nnanna Uzor Kalu, younger brother of the former governor and member, representing Aba North and South in the House of Representatives. Five explosives were thrown from an adjoining road, landed on the field and exploded. Perpetrators jumped into a waiting vehicle and sped off. The explosion wounded four persons.

·         Labor Party offices in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, were attacked with explosives shortly before dawn on 21 February 2011.  Windows were shattered but no injuries were reported.  "We were preparing for the official kick-off of the campaign office at Obia when we heard that the office had been blasted ... We will not give up," said Patterson Ogon, the Labour Party candidate in state parliament elections. This was the third violent attack on the Labor Party in Bayelsa State and may have been related to the court’s reinstatement of Ebebi (now LP) as deputy governor. He is highly unpopular with the PDP. In January shortly after the state governorship primaries the party office in Yenagoa was hit with explosives; a week earlier gunmen killed several supporters of the LP governorship candidate, Timi Alaibe, at his home.  The Labor Party in Bayelsa is under siege, and Alaibe has reportedly lost any support of his former boss, Goodluck Jonathan after switching from the ruling party to LP.

·         On March 2 in Suleja, Niger State, at a PDP rally about 24 miles from Abuja, two blasts exploded in a marketplace near the Government Secondary School that served as a campaign venue.  The bombs were hurled from a speeding bus, killing up to 14, wounding 21, and leaving over a dozen others unconscious.  Some bodies were burned beyond recognition.   Worst hurt were security detail from the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps and the Federal Road Safety Corps.  Governor Babangida Aliyu, who is running for re-election on the PDP platform, was quickly removed from the scene.  On March 4, a 32-year-old trader was found with two metallic objects suspected to be bombs by the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA). A link with the bombing has not been established, but his mobile phone messages offered possible clues.

·         Tanks were posted in Jos, Plateau State, on 21 February to prevent reprisal attacks after Christian and Muslims clashed on 15 February during the Eid'l Maulud celebration of the Prophet’s birthday.  Shortly after a family of five were killed in a night raid at a village near Kuru Jenta. It seemed to be a personal reprisal after people from the village killed nearly 300 in Kuru Jenta last January 2010. These events are indirectly related to elections, in which the PDP is perceived to be largely Christian-dominated in the Middle Belt.

·         In Borno State, a cache of weapons was found on February 19, following a shootout between a military patrol and gunmen heading from the border town of Gamboru Ngala. Three gunmen opened fire on the patrol and all were killed. Any links with the Islamist group Boko Haram are unclear. Stratfor reported that the weapons included a machine gun, rocket-propelled grenades, AK-47 rifles, explosive devices, hand grenades and a large quantity of ammunition.

·         In Kano State, the small town of Dambatta erupted when a young man alleged to have stolen a motorbike at the Prophet’s birthday celebration died in police custody.  Enraged youths charged the police with torture and attempted to burn down the station. However, it appears that the man was in fact beaten by a mob on Feb. 18 after being released from jail and was taken back in by police, whereupon he died in hospital. It seems that some members of the community had resorted to “self-help” to restore justice in this case and 35 people were arrested, police said.

Parties confirm their candidates: 19 presidential contestants and 345 gubernatorial aspirants for – er - how many states?

The INEC Chairman said that the complete list of all nominated candidates for every position in the forthcoming election would be published between March 2 and March 16, 2011 in accordance with the time table and schedule of activities issued by the Commission. 

A complete list of presidential candidates and their educational background is given below.  The choices are unusually rich in intellectual capacity, and such talent would hopefully encourage more rational leadership and planning for Nigeria in future years.

The April presidential elections will focus chiefly on three candidates:

·         for the powerful, ruling PDP: Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (Christian, Bayelsa) and his running mate. Mohammed Namadi Sambo (Muslim, Kaduna State);

·         for the CPC the tenacious former military head of state Maj Gen. Mohammadu Buhari (Muslim, Katsina State) and Pastor Babatunde Bakare (Christian and converted Muslim, Ogun State)

·         for the ACN, former EFFC head the intrepid Nuhu Ribadu (Muslim, Adamawa) and his running mate Tajudeen Afolabi Adeola (Muslim, Ogun State)

Another candidate worth watching, given the ANPP party strength in the Kano, Bornu, and Yobe States and Abubakar Atiku’s recent flirtation with a return to its fold after losing out in a landslide to Jonathan in the PDP primary as the party’s presidential candidate.

·         for the ANPP. Ibrahim Shekarau, former governor of Kano State (Muslim) and his running mate John Euboyanwan Kenneth Odi (Christian, Bayelsa).

Religion and geography count in Nigeria, as they do in most national elections. Notable among the choices is Nuhu Ribadu’s decision, on his third try to find a running mate, to risk a Muslim-Muslim ticket in a country in which religious affiliation has become increasingly sensitive.  (Abiola’s run in 1993 on such a ticket raised few eyebrows at the time.)  His first choice, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a managing director of the World Bank, a Christian from Delta State, and recently publicized as one of the world’s top 100 women, was not available. (Perhaps she should consider a run for the presidency in her own right.)

Mr Buhari’s attempt to “balance” his ticket took an almost cynical edge in his choice of running mate Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, an apostolic Christian mega-church in Lagos.  Pastor Bukare has been resident for much of his recent life in Atlanta, Georgia. Both men are doctrinaire in style, Mr. Buhari for his anti-corruption and anti-indiscipline stance, and Pastor Bukare for his conservative religious views.  Recently, Bakare broadened his interests to include a political mission, when he became the leader of the “Save Nigeria” organization, dedicated preventing Nigeria from becoming a failed state mired in corruption and poverty.

Since his victory in the PDP primary, Mr. Jonathan has been working hard to regain support from his party’s northern wing, which had attempted to create a combined counterforce favoring north-south rotation in the person of a northern “consensus candidate” (Atiku Abubakar) in the primary. In a widely reported gesture, Jonathan made a visit on the weekend of February 26 to the Abuja home of Mallam Adamu Ciroma, head of the PDP Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF).  A reported “deal” was struck setting up a seven-person campaign council and enlisting support of donors, including Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man (worth over $13bn according to Forbes).  The objective was to stem the spectre of an ACN, CPC, ANPP alliance against the PDP and to prevent the NPLF from giving its support to a northern opponent, such as Buhari. 

While the plan seems to have achieved its aim to stall defection, it has not forged a full reconciliation with some northern elements of the PDP. Two events could threaten the tenuous balance.  The first is a move under the Unity Forum (UF) of the PDP to undermine the peace effort.  The plan is to work in favor of the presidential candidate of the  Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), General Muhammadu Buhari.  The second threat seemed to come out of the Jonathan administration, when the SSS arrested two members of the NPLF secretariat and accused them of a plot to poison President Jonathan if he won the April poll.  (It is generally believed that the deaths of General Sani Abacha and Mashood Abiola were caused by poison.)  What future for reconciliation now?

LIST OF THE 19 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR 2011 ELECTIONS

THEIR GENDER AND ACADEMIC/PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

Compiled in present form by Nigerianmuse.com

All Copyrights reserved

Summary:  

* 19 political parties, 1 female presidential contestant, 4 female vice-presidential contestants. 

* John Odigie-Oyegun not ANPP vice-presidential candidate as previously announced

S/N	Name Of Party	Party Acronym	Presidential Candidate (Gender) Qualification	Vice-Presidential Running Mate (Gender) Qualification
1	Peoples Democratic Party	PDP	Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (M) PHD, M.SC	Arc. Mohammed Namadi Sambo (M) B.SC, M.SC
2	Congress for Progressive Change	CPC	Major. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (Retd) (M) DIPLOMA	Pastor Babatunde Bakare (M) LL.B, BL
3	All Nigeria Peoples Party	ANPP	Ibrahim Shekarau (M) DIPLOMA	John Euboyanwan Kenneth Odi (M) BSC
4	National Conscience Party	NCP	Dele Momodu (M) BA	Yinusa Tanko (M) MBA
5	Social Democratic Mega Party	SDMP	Prof. Patrick Okenadichi Utomi (M) PROFESSOR	Alhaji Lawal Kasimu Funtua (M) WASC
6	Action Congress of Nigeria	ACN	Nuhu Ahmed Ribadu (M) LLB,BL	Tajudeen Afolabi Adeola (M) DIPLOMA
7	Mega Peoples Progressive Party	MPPP	Hon. Hamisu Santuraki (M) DIPLOMA	Hon. Rasheed A.  Shitta-Bey (M) LLB,BL
8	National Transformation Party	NTP	John Omoniyi Dara (M) MBA	Bilikisu Ismo Magogo (F) MIAD
9	Hope Democratic Party	HPD	Chief Ambrose Owuru (M) LLB,BL	Ibrahim Danjuma Abdullahi (M) PGD
10	Better Nigeria Peoples Party	BNPP	Ifeanyichukwu Godswill Nnaji (M) PHD	Kadijat B. Abubakar (F) NCE
11	FRESH Democratic Party	FRESH	Revd. Chris Oghenebrorie Okotie (M) LL.B	Binitu Fela Akinola (F) BA

12	African Renaissance Party	ARP	Yahaya G.K.  Ndu (M) ADV. DIPLOMA	Rose Yakubu (F) MBA
13	African Political System	APS	Sir Lawrence Adedoyin (M) MSC (MECH)	Alhaji  IbrahimTanko Yakassai (M) ND
14	African Democratic Congress	ADC	Rev. Peter Uchenna Nwangwu (M) B.A, MSC, PHD	Mani I. Ahmed (M) NCE, B.SC (ED)
15	United National Party for Development	UNPD	Chief Ebiti Onoyom Ndok (F) OND, PGD, MA	Alhaji Galadima Samari (M) WASCE
16	Peoples Progressive Party	PPP	Prince Lawson Igbuanugo Aroh (M) BA (POL. SCIENCE)	Barrister Samuel Abidan (M) LLB,BL
17	Peoples Mandate Party	PMP	Nwadike Bato Chikezie O. (M) BA	Alhaji Ali Abacha (M) TC II
18	People for Democratic Change	PDC	Alhaji Mahmud Mudi Waziri (M) WASC	Chief Clement Ayogu (M) GCE
19	National Majority Democratic Party	NMDP	Dr. Solomon Akpona (M) MBA, PHD	Abdullahi Suleiman (M) N.D.