Post-election Violence and the Failure of Intelligence

Sahara Reporters

26 April 2011

Post-election Violence and the Failure of Intelligence

Sabella Ogbobode Abidde

The killing, maiming and the destruction of lives and property in many parts of Northern Nigeria began the moment it became apparent that Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, the incumbent and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, had won the 2011 presidential election against his chief rival, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the Congress for Progressive Change. Two weeks after the killing began, there is still bedlam, insecurity, and palpable anxiety in the air. Incidentally, two weeks after the first life was lost, the Nigerian government has yet to tell the public how many lives were lost, how many were injured and how many public and private possessions were destroyed. But of course, this is characteristic of Nigerian governments: the dereliction, the indifference and the sheer incompetence.

Since 1976, at least, there have been about three accounts of communal, ethnic and/or religious crises almost every year. Because the government, non-governmental organizations, and the media and research institutions do not have reliable data, it is highly likely that about a quarter million Nigerians have lost their lives in manners that are directly and indirectly related to these crises. In addition, it is possible that both private and public concerns have lost properties that can conservatively be estimated at five billion dollars. And then, there are the losses that can not be quantified: the loss of time and wages; the physical and mental injuries; and the social dislocations that are associated with such strife.

What's more, there are costs to the nation-state: Every time we suffer any of these self-immolations, it diminishes our collective humanity; contributes to the fragmentation of the state; helps to deepen and widen primordial suspicions; and also helps to flame mutual hatred. The violent aftermath of the April 16 presidential election may not be a direct offshoot of religious and/or ethnic differences; still, it seems to have a tinge of both. Many observers of the Nigerian political landscape have attempted to explain why we continue to suffer these and related conflicts. Well, as important as their questions are, it is also necessary to ask why in spite of the huge amount of resources at its disposal, the intelligence community failed at one of its most basic functions: Intelligence gathering.