Niger Delta Weekly Buzz: 30 Jan - 19 Feb, Part 2 -- Candidates, the Courts, John Togo and More

News and Resources from the Niger Delta Working Group

Weekly Buzz

30 January – 19 February 2011

Deirdre LaPin

Part 2

Elections and the courts: Issues at the top and the whole way down

Disputes are common in the Nigerian electoral process.  Some are adjudicated internally by the parties.  INEC may resolve issues that are directly related to the machinery of voting.  Other complaints are ruled by the judiciary.  Petitions are eagerly submitted by losing contestants, and their sheer volume can slow the governing process.  For example, following the recent party primaries, over 160 pre-election cases have been filed nationwide against the commission. 

At the top of the list of election petitioners is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who decisively lost the ruling PDP primary to Goodluck Jonathan.  On 20 January he filed a petition with INEC against the conduct of the primary election by the PDP, alleging unwillingness of the leadership of the party to provide a “level playing field” to all aspirants.  His campaign committee was not advised until the last minute of the members of the Convention Planning Committee, the screening committee, or the logistics and mechanics of the voting procedure. These weaknesses, in his view, compound the Party’s violation of its own constitution in failing to observe the principle of ”zonal rotation” between North and South in the selection of candidates. 

Atiku’s petition concludes: “It was in the light of these lapses, uncertainty, unfairness, secrecy, non-disclosure of vital information and outright breaches of both the party’s guidelines for the conduct of the Presidential Primary election and the 2010 Electoral Act, that the organization was compelled to warn the PDP leadership not to allow a repeat of the chaotic and undemocratic primaries conducted earlier in the states for state assembly, national assembly and governorship candidates.”  INEC Chairman Jega advised Mr. Atiku that his petition contained issues that were internal affairs to the party.  He should seek redress from the PDP or alternatively file his petition with the courts, the Chairman suggested.

Courts can leave candidates and their backers sitting on pins and needles.  After the PDP primaries in Abia State, the second term run of the PDP incumbent Governor, Dr. Theodore Orji, suffered a hitch when the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja granted an interim order preventing INEC from listing him as the PDP gubernatorial candidate. Orji’s endorsement by the Party was questioned by another claimant for the slot (Chief Ikechi Emenike) who won a parallel race organized by a second PDP state faction.  Two days later Orji filed an injunction asking the court to vacate the order.  Justice Gabriel Kolawole, pleading that he was burdened with other official matters, said his judgment must wait until 24 February (and later extended it to 27 February). Orji is very unpopular in the capital city Aba, where he is blamed for rampant crime and economic decline. Nevertheless, the PDP handed Orji the PDP flag at a kick-off rally for the election campaign.  Will he run for the PDP?  The court will decide in its own good time.

A second nail-biting case has been the candidacy of PDP Governor Akpabio of Akwa Ibom State.  Immediately following the state primaries, his candidacy for a second term was disputed by one of two rival candidates who did not complete their papers in time.  The alleged reason was bureaucratic obstruction by the PDP.  A rerun was proposed by the PDP to settle the matter. Mr. Akpabio won handily.  But the rival Frank Okon continued to press his suit with the Federal High Court in Abuja to prevent INEC from recognizing Mr Akpabio as the party's candidate.  Judge Abdu Kafarati struck down the suit on February 25 for lacking merit.  Thanks to the court, Mr. Akpabio will be the true governorship candidate of the PDP in Akwa Ibom state in the April polls.

Safeguarding the integrity and efficiency of the courts: A battle of titans rages between heads of the Appeals Court and the Supreme Court.

The challenges for the judiciary in the county’s raucous political system are two-fold: first, the fundamental integrity of the courts and second, the over-burdening of courts with election-related cases.

Integrity of the courts. The integrity of the judiciary is vital to ensuring due process. Judges serve as the bulwark for defending principle of “one person, one vote.”  Great alarm spread through the nation, therefore, when Judge Ayo Salami, President of the Court of Appeals was “elevated” against his will by Chief Justice of Nigeria Aloysius Katsina-Alu to sit on the Supreme Court. 

The motive, claimed the independent-minded Judge, was to remove him from the apex position of authority over future election petitions.  The Appeal Court is the final arbiter for election cases except those involving the presidency.  Rejecting the unwanted “promotion,” Salami asked for an injunction against the Chief Justice. He also submitted an affidavit alleging that the Chief Justice asked him to compromise the Court of Appeal’s verdict in a legal battle over the result of the gubernatorial election in Sokoto State, where the sitting governor was from the PDP party.  Because Salami’s court had previously ruled against the PDP gubernatorial candidates in two states, it was alleged the Chief Justice believed that a panel on the Appeal Court was about to rule against the interests of the incumbent governor.  According to Salami’s affidavit, the Chief Justice asked him to either disband the original panel in the appeal or to mandate the panel to give judgment in the governor’s favor.  When Salami refused, the appeal in the Sokoto gubernatorial election petition was dismissed by the Supreme Court, even though it had no immediate jurisdiction over the case.

National newspapers decried the dismissal of the appeal as an example of blatant interference by the Chief Justice.  The Academic Staff Union of Universities called for the Chief Justice to resign.  Meanwhile, other parties called for an investigation of Salami’s rulings in appeal cases that eventually overturned the elections of PDP governors in Osun and Ekiti States. The National Executive Committee (NEC) of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) admitted that there is corruption in the judiciary and set up a committee to probe all allegations of corruption on the bench.

Judge Salami has retained his place on the Court of Appeal.  But the calls for the departure of the Chief Justice have gained force with the news that he will reach mandatory retirement age of 70 on 28 May 2011 (or possibly 2010, as shown in some documents). Already, his retirement date has been extended by three months to August.  Meanwhile the Judiciary Committee in the House of Representatives has called for an investigation into the row between the two judges. It would seem that the Chief Justice’s ploy to stack the electoral deck (some say in favor of the PDP) has backfired.  The question now is: How long will he remain on seat?

Misuse of the courts. Meanwhile, the Chairman of INEC wrote a letter on 17 February to the Chief Justice complaining of the large number of “frivolous” – and sometimes contradictory – ex-parte court orders regarding the nomination of election candidates. Judges at state and federal high courts have been granting orders regarding party primaries “at the drop of the hat,” he said, a tendency that was dangerous to the electoral process.  The chairman noted in the letter that INEC been served with 132 cases and 70 ex-parte orders, many in conflict with one another. By the end of the week, the number of cases had escalated to over 160. Lawyers often fail to determine whether a court order on the same matter is subsisting from another court. 

Emerging candidates … some in … out … in … out… and…

On 15 February, a preliminary list of presidential candidates and running mates emerged for 18 of the 63 political parties.   

PARTY                                               CANDIDATE                    RUNNING MATE

•Hope Democratic                              Ambrose Awuru                      Ibrahim Abdullahi  

•National Conscience Party                Dele Momodu                         Yunusa Tanko 

•United National Party for Dev.          Ebiti Ndok                               Galadima Samari  

•People’s Democratic Party               Goodluck Jonathan                Mohammed Sambo 

•All Nigeria People’s Party                 Ibrahim Shekarau                    John Odigie-Oyegun

•Better Nigeria Progress  Party          Iheanyichukwu Nnaji              Kadijat Abubakar 

•People for Democratic Change        Mahmud Waziri                       Clement Eze 

•Congress for Progressive Change    Muhammadu Buhari               Tunde Bakare

•Action Congress of Nigeria               Nuhu Ribadu                           *Chris Ngige

•Social Democratic Mega Party         Pat Utomi                                Lawal Funtua 

•African Democratic                           Peter Nwangwu                      Mani Ibrahim Ahmad

___________

*To be replaced by a substitution

More candidates will emerge before expiration of the deadline for substitution. Final dates for submission of nomination forms for candidates for the elections.were extended by INEC to:

·         February 21        National Assembly candidates

·         February 28        Presidential candidates

·         March 7                Gubernatorial candidates

Candidate selection is a process in continuous flux.

However, the candidate lists emerge, they are usually the outcome of an untidy process that generates party factions, endless horsetrading, candidate widthdrawals and substitutions, charges of INEC ineptitude, court challenges, party mergers and candidate “cross-carpeting” between parties.  

Could the ACN and the CPC reach agreement on a merger?  Many motives lay behind the on-and-off negotiations between the ACN (Ribadu) and the CPC (Buhari) to present a common manifesto and presidential candidate.  All parties had a common aim: to stop Goodluck Jonathan.  At one stage the ANPP (Shakarau) and the SDMP (Utomi) proposed to join the coalition.  Little came of the effort, and the most likely impediment was that former head of state Mohammadu Buahri was not keen.  

Who will run with Ribadu on the ACN ticket?  Not left to make his own decision by party godfathers, and as the INEC nomination deadline loomed, Nuhu Ribadu selected a stop-gap running mate.  He was Dr. Sunny Ugochukwu, a Dallas Texas entrepreneur who was also running Ribadu’s campaign.  Said to have been a former personal assistant to Chief Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, his appeal included his talents and his origins in the South-East zone, where the ACN is seeking voter support. 

Meanwhile, Mallam Ribadu tussled with the party leader Bola Tinubu over his most desired candidate, former Finance Minister and World Bank managing director Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.  But eventually the name of Dr. Chris Ngige, the favorite of Tinubu loyalists, was rumored to appear on the candidate list. Still, speculation spread that the former Anambra State Governor was just another place-holder. The issue was settled when Dr. Ngige was put forward as the party’s senatorial candidate from Anambara State. 

The final choice was Mr. Afolabi Tajudeen Adeola, former Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, former chairman of the National Pension Commission (Pencom), and former member of the (Tony) Blair Commission on Africa.  The outcome presents voters with a Muslim-Muslim ticket composed of progressive intellects. A courageous move in a religion-sensitive polity attracted more by fundamentalism than by good ideas.    

Candidate Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ).

Not surprisingly, Goodluck Jonathan’s decisive win in the presidential primary of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has engendered hard feelings among the Northern party leadership. His campaign is facing stark challenges.  Abubakar Atiku, his former rival, has sent a petition to INEC requesting that the race be annulled because of unfair practices by his opponent.  Last weekend the Northern Political Leaders Forum of the PDP huddled in Abuja and issued a communiqué warning that the high level of impunity exhibited by the “sham primary elections” that took place at all levels indicated that the April elections would be less than free and fair.  Some Northern PDP power brokers have thrown their weight behind the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari. 

Taking a page from the Obama playbook, Jonathan has wooed a number of former competitors –some with very deep pockets – into his tent.  A new Presidential Campaign Council incorporates some members of his primary compaign team but also seeks to accommodate his rivals -- former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Kwara State Governor, Dr. Bukola Saraki and former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida.  Business mogul Aliku Dangote and telecoms magnate Mike Adenuga have reportedly joined the new campaign team.  The Council is headed by Dr. Tafida Dalhatu as Director General (DG), and former Foreign Affairs Minister, Chief Ojo Maduekwe is his deputy.

Johathan’s most ambitious demarche to build bridges with the opposition was a visit to the home of Mallam Adamu Ciroma, leader of the Northen Political Leadership Forum of the PDP.  The outcome is thus far ambiguous.

The GEJ election campaign has faced a rocky start, especially in the North.

Former Senate President Ken Nnamani, Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki and the Director-General of the Babangida Campaign Organisation, Raymond Dokpesi, did not attend the inauguration of the campaign. (Dokpesi was briefly implicated by the Presidency in the Oct. 1 blasts in Abuja.)

A campaign office was torched in Yobe State, a walk-out ended a rally prematurely in Kaduna (the home town of vice-president Sambo) and a similar snub was meted out in Bauchi State, and a campaign vehicle was pelted with rocks in Nasarawa   An outbreak of violence on the eve of a campaign swing through Plateau State brought out the anti-bomb-squad but  the rallies went ahead in this state, where Jonathan is popular. 

Tragedy struck Jonathan’s PDP campaign kick-off in a Port Harcourt stadium, where a huge crowd from Rivers and nearby states had gathered to hear speeches by gubernatorial candidates, followed by the president.  When some of the crowd sought to exit through a single small door after the governors’ talks, gridlock led to struggle.  Security police brought in from outside the state fired shots to quiet the melee but instead panic seized the crowd. As they fled to the narrow exit, eleven were trampled to death and dozens were injured. Many of the jubilants were induced by stipends to attend the event. Jonathan set up an investigation panel and called for special police training in crowd control.  Local leaders noted that the “outside” police miscalculated because they did not understand the cultural norms of communication and local behavior.

President Jonathan stands up to his Advisory Council

Long before selecting his campaign team, a presidential advisory council was set up in March 2010 by the president “to evaluate policy implementation and advise on areas requiring adjustments; to advise the President on how to maximize the benefits derivable from government’s efforts; to advise on such actions and programmes that may improve credibility and performance of the government.”

Almost a year later, on January 20, 2011, the group submitted a major report, which heavily criticized Mr. Jonathan’s government.  Among other recommendations, the council asked the president to trim his bloated bureaucracy. Mr. Jonathan announced the appointment of new special advisers and assistants shortly after, some say as campaign footsoldiers. But he also set up a team under his SGF, Yayale Ahmed, to draft a response.

If he wins, will he be able to govern?

Without the benefit of objective surveys it is difficult to judge the deep trend of popular opinion. Even so, some are asking: If he wins, and given the divisions between north and south (in his party as well as the country) will he be able to unite the country and govern effectively?

The SSS arrest “new” militant leaders, while the JTF mops up arms and ammunition. “General” John Togo still at large sends more warnings as Urhobo communities go into economic decline

The new Special Advisor on the Amnesty, Kingsley Kuku, estimates that fewer than 1,000 youths are still engaged in militant activities in the Niger Delta, while “at least” 26,356 formerly armed criminals have so far embraced the amnesty. 

And then there are some, like the resurgent General John Togo, who have been playing both sides of the game.  The General has led the JTF on a merry chase around the Niger Delta since their overzealous sack of his village Ayakuroma in early December.  A reward of N10,000 has been offered for information on his whereabouts. 

On 3 February Mark Anthony, the spokesman for Togo’s Niger Delta Liberation Force, signed an emailed statement calling off the Force’s “cease-fire” and pledging to resume attacks in seven days.  [Note: That date 10 February has come and gone.]   The message painted a graphic picture of booby-traps made of long-life, remote-controlled explosives sprinkled among oil facilities throughout the region.  In addition, the group planned to destroy a major distribution export pipeline in the high seas with the high capacity time-bombs that were planted two months ago.  Finally, it warned the JTF to vacate Togo’s occupied camps and threatened any soldier who remained.  

The JTF have not been deterred. Last month, complaints were heard from the leadership of the Kula community in Akuku-Toru Local Council, Rivers State about some new camps in their neighborhood that were hatching crimes and warlordism.  The State Security Service arrested two rival militant leaders named Sopakiriba Teme Igbikis and Akobo Erise Dokubo and exhibited them to the press before remanding them to court.   These gang leaders found willing recruits from disbanded militant groups, including one headed by Tamunotonye Kuna, alias Obese, who was arrested with 60 others by the JTF in January. Gang members were accused of preying on oil workers and the civilian population and engaging in piracy against fishing trawlers, oil tankers and robbery of boat operators.  Stockpiled arms and ammunition were recovered from their camps by the JTF.

A third gang headed by Dakorubo Bruce (a.k.a. Bakobar) was also apprehended. Its members were believed to have been involved in sea piracy, high value kidnapping and armed robbery, including the First Bank in Ikot Abasi, Akwa Ibom State.       

Urhobo communities seek relief from the John Togo manhunt.  The ethnic mix in the riverain areas of Burutu and Bomadi,Delta State has, put two Urhobo communities called Omosuomo Inland and Omosuomo Waterside in the crossfire between the JTF and their hunt for John Togo’s resurgent Ijaw fighters. The Urhobo, who are ethnically related to the Edo people, are typically a stolid, hardworking lot.  They rarely complain.  But recently their plight drove their Chairman and Chief to ask the Governor for relief materials – including food to eat.   They say that their communities used to be the food basket for three neighboring local government areas.  But because of repeated assaults from both militants and military, sea piracy, and killings, their economic activities have nearly come to a halt.  They are frightened and destitute.  What they need is more than relief; they need for the government and its armed forces to implement a program of protection for innocent villagers living in a delta war zone.

Elsewhere, Ijaw ex-militants invaded Ijosun town, in Ondo State, and kidnapped the local ruler.  The invasion seemed to be revenge for the death of the father to one of the militants. One or two persons were reportedly killed and many houses were razed.  Oba Samuel Oyegbemi, the monarch, was abducted and his palace set ablaze. 

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Army has just established a new brigade in Enugu, in the SE Zone near the Niger Delta, to tackle kidnapping and bombing.

The Iranian arms found in 13 containers were intended for the Gambia says the Iranian Ambassador, and was the last of three shipments

The case of the illegal arms shipment concealed in 13 containers of building materials is growing curiouser and curiouser, as the Iranian Ambassador told the press, "It is based on the agreement signed between Iran and Gambia three years back and this is not the first part of that consignment. This is the third part…”  He did not know why the shipment that included rockets and grenades was disguised as building material.  A private company arranged the shipment, he explained.  On January 31 Nigerian prosecutors requested that the trial of alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guard Azim Aghajani and a Nigerian businessman be delayed and the case moved from the capital to Lagos. Charges were dropped against the two, as well as two other Nigerians accused.  The illegal arms shipment could violate UN sanctions against Iran.

Wanted: A National Security Plan

Retired General Owoye Azazi, who was only recently appointed the National Security Adviser to President Jonathan, came to Washington a few months ago and told his audience that Nigeria does not have a National Security Plan…. and needs to get one very soon. 

Around the same time a December 2010 national opinion survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI) sounded out public attitudes of Nigerians toward their two main security institutions: police and the military.  It revealed a stark gap between the levels of trust enjoyed by each. The police suffer from a severe lack of public confidence (34% “no confidence”), and this opinion reflects a notable decline from previous surveys. At the same time, the military was highly regarded (39% “some confidence” and 21% “a lot of confidence”).

	No confidence	Not very much	Some	A lot
Police	34	30	24	10
Military	14	24	39	21

On 11 February the Guardian newspaper published an editorial that squarely addressed the proliferating security challenges of the country:

It is disheartening that…President Goodluck Jonathan carries on as if each of these [security] problems exists in isolation, localised to its immediate environment. Maybe so. But again, many localised problems have a way of growing into a big problem, unless addressed in time. It may be politically expedient at this time, to play the ostrich with the present state of insecurity in the land. But it is certainly not the right and proper thing to do. Each passing day, precious lives are lost and property destroyed. Woolly promises to “fish out the culprits” are inadequate. It is indeed a strange response to a serious matter that Governor Sheriff would request prayers for God to intervene in the Boko Haram threat to peace. The people of Nigeria want hard proof that there is a government in charge, one willing and able to secure them and their country.

Former Defence Minister, Lt. Gen. Theophilus Danjuma(rtd), the Chairman of the President’sl Advisory Committee, similarly denounced the incessant killing of innocent persons in Jos and Maiduguri.  It is the responsibility of the government at all levels to maintain law and order in the country, he stressed.

National Security Adviser Azazi has certainly recognized the challenge.  In a recent speech in the Nigerian National Defence College he proposed the elaboration of coherent national, sub-regional and regional security strategies in Nigeria.  Yet he also stressed that security is everybody’s business. In societies that display religious and ethnic tensions, the military must work with politicians, traditional and religious rulers, and civil society to forge a “consensus in our societies about the kind of security that is needed,” he said. While security has tightened after the twin bombings in Abuja on October 1, such measures can only be temporary and partial. If the root causes of insecurity threats go unaddressed, they can “crystallize into armed violence, insurgency, irregular and guerrilla warfare.”

What is new about these threats is the reach of communications.  Today, “everybody is everywhere,” says Azazi. For this reason, he disagrees with voices that have called for the imposition of state of emergency in the violence-prone states of Borno, Bauchi and Plateau.  The suspension of civilian government “will further aggravate the state of insecurity by removing the Governor.”  Economic, religious, and ethnic factors are all at play in the security environment.  But crime and violence often rise to the surface as corollaries to political issues.  For this reason, they are best resolved by political leaders through good governance and appropriate policies – not by the military.

Still, the political class must rise to its responsibility as a maker and not a spoiler of peace.  Until that time, the military will continue to play a pivotal role in conflict resolution. For example, as Chief of Army Staff in 2006, General Azazi himself launched a Niger Delta Peace Forum to broker peace through several meetings with activist youth.  Recently, on February 10 in Plateau State, a truce between Hausa, Fulani and Irigwe ethnic groups was signed to end hostilities in the Bassa Local Government outside Jos.  Soldiers of the Special Task Force facilitated the signing, which was witnessed by the LGA Chairman, the police, the immigration, the Federal Road Safety Commission, the Civil Defence and other officials of the council. 

More work remains for Bassa.  Sadly a week after the signing, the former monarch’s residence was burned in Shekan village, Bassa LGA, and four members of his family died in the inferno. In a more gruesome episode, a man and his wife were beheaded by criminals thought to be ritual killers, who made away with the heads.  [Taking heads was a traditional practice among some ethnic groups on the Plateau, and carried political overtones.]

On a hopeful note, Governor Jang of Plateau State has received the green light from the Defense Minister to launch an "Operation Rainbow" to help stem the tide of violence in Jos.  It is essentially a neighborhood watch approach, grafted on the concept of traditional youth grades or vigilantes, who have for generations protected their communities.  A similar program has been active in Kaduna since it was wracked by religious violence a decade ago. The name suggests a scheme that is non sectarian. Unfortunately, Gov. Jang does not seem to have engaged the Muslim Hausa/Fulani stakeholders sufficiently in designing the program.  They have begun to characterize it as an “illegal parallel security outfit” serving only some sectional [Christian] interests in the population. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, the police are taking steps to improve their performance.  Inspector General of Police, Hafiz Ringim said recently at the Nigerian Police Academy in Kano, “There is a new dawn in the Nigerian police. The White Paper on Police Reforms encompasses many recommendations to uplift the Force, and implementations have since begun. The current operation/professional training and programs on-going in various Police Training Institutions in the country derive from the reform program.” 

More worries about the NDDC and the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs: duplication of road contracts?

The creation of the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs in 2009 seemed like an invitation to duplication and confusion.  Its broad mandate was very nearly congruent with that of the ongoing Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).  They shared something else.  Like most institutions in the country, they turned on the award of contracts, and the control of contracts is a bureaucrat’s bread and butter. 

In January the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) were petitioned by a pressure group -- the Niger Delta Justice and Mass Movement – that alleged that the NDDC had recently awarded a contract that duplicated a tender issued by the Ministry.  The $180m NDDC consultancy contract for the studies and design of the East-West coastal road was on the Ministry advertized tenders list.  Furthermore, in April 2009 President Goodluck Jonathan directed that the project be handled by the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs, not the NDDC. 

This is the last in a series of scandals that have wracked the NDDC.  But it has been carrying on with its work. In early February the Commission initiated its Petroleum Engineering/ Drilling Graduate Training Programme for indigenes of the Niger Delta.  Mr. Ugwoha, the MD of NDDC, noted that skills needed in the oil and gas industry were short in the Niger Delta Region, and the Commission sought to give a fillip to Nigeria’s local content policy.  The students are promising post-graduates in engineering; many of the trainers have had industry experience outside Nigeria. Classroom and on-the-rig training will teach the basics of well site safety, well-logging, drilling skills, and more. The program complements similar training courses offered by Shell and other oil companies.  It is hoped the trainees will find a place in local companies on completion of the training.

The Post-Amnesty Advisor and stakeholder relations 

The Honorable Kingsley Kuku, who replaced Timipre Aliabe as the special Presidential Advisor on the Amnesty, is still finding his feet.  He is a youngish 40.  A former Niger Delta activist, he once headed the Ijaw Youth Council.  Under President Yar’Adua he served as Secretary of the Federal Government Committee on Peace and Conflict Resolution in the Niger Delta, and facilitated government negotiations with militant groups. Kuku is not strongly linked politically to a regional godfather, and is from Ondo State, on the margins of the Niger Delta, where he recently held a local elected office. His management experience is more limited than that of his predecessor, who headed the NDDC.  

A strong, but occasionally harsh, communicator, he has shifted between praising the Amnesty Program as the “most successful in Africa” and firmly putting his foot down with former freedom fighters and partners.  Almost immediately he was faced with as embarrassing showdown between some amnesty trainees in Ghana, who took hostages to protest a contractor’s failure to pay stipends.  Kuku has been pressed to reign in her claims of unpaid allowances and stipends and discrimination against some cohorts of registered ex-militants. In a media outburst, he roundly criticized oil company partners for the insufficiency of their proposed $30 million contribution to the ex-militant reintegration program.  $30m is not a small chunk of change.  Gently, the President obliquely reminded his Advisor in a speech that his job was to “build bridges” (and by implication not anger his donors and the very touchy ex-militants). 

The National Assembly gets cracking … at last… but what about  the PIB?

Perhaps the (some) members of the National Assembly (NASS) who won their party primaries for a second term need grist for their campaigns in advance of the April elections.  Whatever the reason, they have gone to work.  The Senate passed the President’s Anti-terrorism Act last week and the House is tackling the Freedom of Information Act … which seemed dead since its introduction in 2007. 

Now there remains the little matter of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which is expected to restructure the Nigerian oil and gas companies into fully commercial entities, revise the financial framework of offshore operations, change the relationship with longstanding international partners and encourage more local participation. The President has promised passage before May, but will NASS (and the powerful interests at play) cooperate?  Stalled passage has put new projects and billions of dollars in investment on hold, threatening future production.  The proposal made in 2009 by Mr. Emmanuel Egbogha, Special Presidential Advisor on Energy, to include “10% equity for oil-producing communities” in the PIB is still on the table.  Hopefully, a champion will be fighting for the interests of the long-suffering people of the Niger Delta, as the backroom negotiations on the PIB continue. 

Federal Appeals Court in New York declines to rehear the suit brought against Royal Dutch Shell by families of executed Ogoni

On February 4, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York refused to rehear a case- Kiobel et al v. Royal Dutch Petroleum Co et al that accuses Shell of helping Nigerian authorities violently to suppress protests against oil exploration in the 1990s.  The plaintiffs are families of seven Ogoni who were convicted of treason in a military tribunal and hanged along with Ken Saro-Wiwa in 1995.  .The case could have been a test of whether the 1789 Alien Tort Claims Act can hold companies responsible for human rights violations.  In 2009 a similar case brought by the Saro-Wiwa family in the same court was settled for $15.5m.  The Kiobel case may not be over, as plaintiffs may ask for a review by the Supreme Court.

Oil Companies launch a media offensive to publicize their social investments

Chevron has flooded the media with news about a new initiative for Niger Delta Development.  According to a press release, the company has signed a memorandum of understanding with USAID to “promote economic development, improve the capacity of government and civil society institutions, and help reduce conflict in the region.”  Each party will contribute $25 million over four years. The financing instrument is the Niger Delta Partnership Initiative (NDPI), modeled on a local development organization which Chevron created in Angola. Chevron Corp. plans an initial total contribution of $50m to the NDPI and has invited an equal contribution from other donors, for which the USAID MOU is a first step. 

The NDPI will be working with a Nigerian affiliate, the Foundation for Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta (PIND) which will “participate in the design, development and monitoring of programs” in the areas of economic development, capacity building, peace-building, analysis and advocacy.  The PIND is based in Abuja with an implementation center in Warri.  By adding value to Chevron’s corporate responsibility program, the PIND initiative also fills a gap left by the lackluster performance of two national institutions for regional development:  the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC, 2000) and Ministry for Niger Delta Affairs (2009). 

Meanwhile, the Nigerian joint venture Chevron Nigeria Limited continues to work directly with local communities, grouped in eight clusters called Regional Development Councils.  In January, Chevron reported a Best Practices workshop that brought all eight Councils together to share their experiences with the cluster  development model.

Shell, the first major operator in the Niger Delta, was the first of the oil majors in to support agriculture, healthcare, education, and business development programs in the Niger Delta.  It was and also the first to seek development partnerships with USAID, UNDP, and local Nigerian institutions such as the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture.  In past weeks, in part to counter criticism from NGOs in a recent hearing in the Dutch Parliament, it has been reminding the Nigerian public about its social investments. The Shell joint venture company SPDC reported that it had spent N9.03bn [$60.02m] on healthcare, roads, water projects, education and many other community development initiatives in 2010 – in addition to its statutory contribution to the NDDC of 3% of its operating budget (which is in excess of $60m).

In 1998, Shell toyed with the idea of creating a foundation similar to Chevron’s PIND, but optimistically cast its lot with the government development organizations.  In choosing to chart a separate partnership foundation a dozen year later, Chevron has been pragmatic, but reticent about contributing to the capacity of national institutions.  

The future price of oil – in money, livelihoods and environmental degradation – Shell, the military, and UNEP

This week, Shell issued a sobering estimate that the world demand for oil may triple by 2050 from 2000 levels.  However, oil production would likely rise by only 50% and energy efficiency would increase by only 20%. The upward pressure on prices could help oil producers but depress many state economies unless feasible energy alternatives were put to use soon. 

Meanwhile, following their hearings last month on oil pollution in the Niger Delta, the Dutch parliament alleged that the Nigerian military has been complicit in oil bunkering.  The suggestion has been angrily denied in numerous forums by the JTF. Yet, any Google search reveals numerous cases against naval personnel (14 under investigation for theft from bunkering vessels), court marshals of Naval Admirals, removal of top Army Generals suspected of benefitting from oil theft.  There have also been numerous admissions over the years by worried senior military officials that staff are involved in the illicit oil trade.  They are.

The long-awaited controversial report from UNEP on oil pollution in the Ogoni area is due to be released soon. A preliminary press conference set off sparks with a suggestion that 90% of the spills in the area were non-operational.  This proportion should not be a surprise, given that oil production ceased in Ogoni in mid-1993.  At the same time, major installations such as the trans-Niger pipeline to Bonny Terminal remained full of product attractive to thieves.  Unless the Nigerian government tackles both economic development and oil bunkering, the rise in demand and price of petroleum will only make oil theft an increasingly attractive alternative to the un- and under-employed youth of the Niger Delta.  Perhaps the JTF doth protest too much.  The Nigerian military would best put its energy into training, paying, and monitoring their troops.