Reuters
11 Feb 2011
* Jonathan frontrunner in presidential race
* Ruling party faces opposition in parts of north, southwest
* Niger Delta, central Middle Belt potential flashpoints
By Nick Tattersall
ABUJA, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Nigeria's ruling party may be in little doubt that President Goodluck Jonathan will win April elections, but it faces a tougher battle to maintain a strong parliamentary majority and wide control of local government.
The People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate has won every presidential race in Africa 's most populous nation since military rule ended in 1999. History looks set to repeat itself after Jonathan's decisive victory in last month's primaries.
But many analysts say the PDP, which has dominated Nigerian politics for more than a decade, could lose ground in parliamentary polls on April 2 and in state governorship polls on April 16, a week either side of the presidential vote.
Opposition to Jonathan -- the first head of state from the southern Niger Delta oil region -- could manifest itself in the outcome of regional polls in the north, while the opposition is seen extending its control in south-western states around Lagos.
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