Weekly Buzz Summary: 09 – 23 April 2011

News and Resources from the Niger Delta Working Group

Weekly Buzz

09 – 23 April 2011

Deirdre LaPin

SUMMARY

The past two weeks have been a roller-coaster, going from the “high” of a vastly improved – and internationally commended if  “not perfect” -- election process to the sudden outbreak of sporadic violence in 14 northern states in reaction to the election of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.  The President, who is from Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta, won without a runoff by garnering 59% of the total vote and 25% of the votes in all but four of the 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory – thereby exceeding the minimum of 24 required to ensure geographical spread.

Four previous issues of the “Buzz” have focused on election-related topics, and they can offer some helpful background if you need it. Two issues, ending 29 January and 19 February described the historic three-week voter registration exercise that took place between January 16 and February 9.  When all were counted and verified, prospective voters totaled 73.5 million (about 31m in the south, 41m in the north).  The final tally excluded over 850,000 “multiple registrants,” (of which twice as many were discovered in the north as in the south).   

The “Buzz” ending March 5, offers a detailed analysis of the registration, especially of 14m voters in the nine Niger Delta states.  Perhaps significantly, it noted a shortfall of 3 million voters from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s original projections of 17m for all nine states of the region. This was the only part of the country showing such a deficit.  For example, the NW geopolitical zone gained 6m registrants beyond the expected number.

In a “Buzz Brief” of April 8 some strong reasons were suggested for expecting a credible, free and fair exercise in the upcoming three rounds.  But the Brief also noted the caveat that a key unpredictable variable was fallout from the decision of the ruling PDP to override its customary “rotation” of the presidency between north and south in favor of the southern Ijaw Jonathan.  Not only is Mr. Jonathan a southerner, but he would become the nation’s first elected head of state from a minority outside the three hegemonic ethnic groups – Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba.  These groups have largely controlled Nigeria’s political fortunes throughout most of its history since Independence in 1960.  History suggests that their leaders are unlikely to relinquish their stranglehold on the country’s politics or resource revenues without a fight.

The current “Buzz” covers the two election rounds carried out thus far.  National Assembly (NASS) elections were held on April 9 for the House of Representatives and the Senate after a one-week postponement for mainly logistical reasons.  The contests yielded losses for the ruling PDP, which maintained a comfortable lead in the Senate but a more fragile hold on the House, for which the speaker lost his mandate. Final results are awaited because some of these races were put back by INEC until April 26 in order to correct misprinted ballots (specifically, 48 of the 360 federal constituencies and 15 of the109 senatorial districts).  

One week after the NASS elections Presidential Elections followed on April 16.  A bit more than one-half of all registrants participated in the vote for President, a higher participation than for the assembly vote. Turn-out was reportedly very high in the South-East and South-South, where President Jonathan is viewed by many as a native son. 

The third round of elections for State Governors and members of State Houses of Assembly are scheduled for Tuesday, April 26.  INEC and the people of Nigeria have overcome -- and patiently and intelligently managed -- significant hurdles to reach this stage in the electoral process.

Unfortunately, the last round will unfold in less auspicious circumstances than the first two polls.  Feelings are running very high in areas affected by the recent riots in the North. Officially, 240 victims are reported dead, but there are probably many hundreds more, together with an estimated 40,000 displaced. The Civil Rights Congress has reported over 500 dead in southern Kaduna State. Another news report mentioned 1,000 deaths in Zankowa, south Kaduna.  INEC too has lost many key assets, including some headquarters destroyed and hundreds of laptops and voter materials looted.  For these reasons, elections in worst-affected states Kaduna and Bauchi have been put off for two days until April 28.

Far worse has been the fate of hundreds of critical Youth Corpers (NYSC) serving as ad hoc poll personnel.  They have been understandably frightened away by heinous attacks on their colleagues.  At last count, 14 Corpers are dead and 20 missing.  One report has put the number of NYSC victims at 51. These young people have served their nation with great courage and commitment, and with a strong belief in Nigeria’s national project.  Their deaths – as those of all victims -- are an unspeakable tragedy. 

Early in the week a Corper named Ukeoma Ikechukwu posted the following message on his Facebook page:

Even after forcing underaged voters on me they wanted me to give them the remaining ballot paper to thumb print. Thank God for the police and am happy i could stand for God and my nation. To all corps members who stood despite these threats esp. In the north bravo! Nigeria! Our change has come."

To his great credit, the pressures Ukeoma described did not dim his hope in the future. Shortly after, he went missing and his corpse was found some days later. An unverified photo in circulation suggests that he was burnt alive.

It is as if the north has been struck by a mad orgy of collective outrage.  The anger in part stems from the persona of the announced winner, who is a Christian from outside the region. More so by a loss of hope among masses of less educated youth in the very popular and seasoned candidate Muhammadu Buhari, whose rhetoric of uncorrupt service to the people promised change from a dozen years of irresponsible government by the winning party.  Today, ordinary Nigerians in all parts of the country, especially in much of the North and the Niger Delta, have little useful education and economic opportunity.  Youth everywhere in the country have therefore approached the elections with the expectation of change, and perhaps even salvation. But while there is a broad agreement on the political roots of their diminished condition, they do not all share the same notion of what or who “change” means, and that is a source of cleavage.

In the post-presidential election period Mr. Buhari’s young party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), has charged that the electoral process which INEC struggled to perfect was flawed in execution.  The claims are in keeping with the candidate’s own early warnings and predictions. Chief complaints are that hundreds of ballots bore illegitimate thumbprints (not matched to actual voters) and that reporting and especially collation of results were deliberately skewed.  The use of computer technology, which is not well understood by most Nigerians, lent credence to claims of sophisticated forms of manipulation.   Results from the South-South and South-East geopolitical zones were singled out for criticism because of their relatively high rates of registered voter turnout.  (Could this be at least partly explained by their relatively low rates of voter registration, relative to population?)  Presence of “voters” who were underage, or not indigenous, was also reported by a number of election observers in the North.

It is broadly recognized that there is probably some truth in these charges, but no one knows yet if they were widespread.  Nevertheless, many wish that in the face of Mr. Jonathan’s resounding lead, Mr. Buhari had chosen the statesman’s path by recognizing the winner and encouraging his supporters to calmly allow the results to stand pending further scrutiny by INEC and the courts.  Instead, the CPC rejected the election results with provocative statements that some believe encouraged reaction from its followers.  And the party stepped in to calm the violence only two days after it had begun. Faith in the very architecture of Nigeria’s electoral democracy has been shaken, and more seriously, trust has been undermined in the people’s common achievement of an election which was broadly viewed as being the most free and fair in decades.

Fingers are crossed that the men and women of the country will muster well-earned pride in a much improved electoral process that has gained kudos from many expert observers inside and outside the country.  The past weekend has been filled with remorse, rumors and accusations.  A climate of agitation and distrust has followed in the wake of the northern unrest.  Hopefully, the Youth Corper Ukeoma’s spirited rallying cry “our change has come” will mobilize the voters’ will and discipline to participate in the final round.  This of course is their best lawful way to express their preferences for change that, along with Ukeoma, so many of them rightly seek. 

Mr. Jonathan will need to listen very well to the cries for help expressed by the long-suffering people of his country.  Building on his reputation for humanity, a new style of national leadership should be his first order of business.  The President will need to build public trust in his government and firmly hold pubic officials to standards of probity, responsibility, and equity. Converting patronage and inefficiency into development investment will put Nigeria in the direction of realizing its great potential.

(Detailed commentary for this Weekly Buzz is forthcoming. Meanwhile, for background articles and supplementary data, please see news posts at http://ndwgnews.blogspot.com.)