Nigeria: PDP Loses Some States in Elections

Stratfor.com

27 April 2011

Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) lost at least two states in governorship elections, according to early results announced April 27, Reuters reported. With half of the results in from 24 states, the PDP lost the southwestern state of Ogun and the central state of Nasarawa. However, it won the most populous northern state, Kano, and swept all of the assembly seats in Sokoto in the north. The opposition Action Congress of Nigeria retained Lagos and the All Nigeria People’s Party held onto Yobe in the north. A member of the Congress for Progressive Change said his party would contest the results in the northern state of Jigawa, which the PDP won, and the PDP said it would challenge results in Lagos.

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Additional Information from Deirdre LaPin as of 6PM EDT 042711:

There is clearly been some attenuation of PDP power in the Niger Delta region.  It is not a power shift, but the PDP may well lose one or two states in 2011 gubernatorial contests.  Thus far, PDP has only three solid wins out of five. Two states are in neck-and-neck races.  Four more contests in 2012 will challenge two sitting PDP governors -- in Bayelsa and Cross River States.  In that same year, two more elections will be held in Ondo State, which is currently Labour, and in Edo State, which is ACN.

2011 WINS

Abia State -- Theodore Orji (PDP incumbent)

Akwa-Ibom – Godswell Akpabio (PDP incumbent)

Rivers – Rotimi Amaechi (PDP incumbent)

TIGHT RACES

Delta – Emmanuel Uduaghan (PDP incumbent) struggles against Great Ogboru (DPP).  The Regional Election Commissioner has postponed announcing the results.

Imo – Ikedi Ohakim (PDP inclumbent) against Rochas Okorocha (APGA), with a good showing by Ifeanyi Araume (ACN).  This may prove to be a very close race, likely to require a re-run, and thereafter attract a court challenge. 

Election-related violence was reported in all but Abia State, with many incidents in especially in Akwa-Ibom and Delta States, where some NYSC election workers were wounded.  (Such attacks on young volunteers are unacceptable.  The perpetrators should be actively sought out and roundly sanctioned.) In Bayelsa, where State Assembly elections are being held, seven "ex-militants" were arrested with a large cache of weapons; they explained that they were late adopters of the Amnesty and intended to hand them over to the police.

Ondo Labour Party

Ondo: Labour Party won all 23 State Assembly seats.