Analysis worth a read ...

Leadership

1 April 2011

Nigeria: Presidential Election Headed for Deadlock

Abuja — Just days before the presidential election scheduled for April 9, investigations by LEADERSHIP show that the election might be headed for a cliff hanger.

But handlers of incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan are optimistic that their principal would floor his challengers in the first ballot, making a runoff needless.

LEADERSHIP reporters nationwide gathered that the president's main challenger, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the standard bearer of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), would put up a strong showing in most of the northern states. ...

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Our Findings

• This assumption is based on the fact that the election will be credible.

• Jonathan is very weak in most northern states but may be able to get the required 25 per cent only in Kaduna in the North-West, Gombe and Taraba in North-East and even slimmer chances in Adamawa and Bauchi states. In the North-Central, he may also get more than the required 25 per cent in Benue, Plateau, Kwara and Kogi states. Jonathan may, however, win in the FCT.

• Buhari is very weak in the South-South and South-East and not likely to get 25 per cent in any of the states. Buhari is, however, likely to get the overwhelming majority in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Niger, Nasarawa and Gombe states. He may get about a half of the votes in Kaduna. He may also get more than a comfortable 25 per cent in Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kwara and more than 40 per cent in Adamawa. Kogi State is very dicey for the CPC presidential candidate.

• Nuhu Ribadu is not really on ground in Lagos as is to be expected. Ninety per cent of those in Lagos who told LEADERSHIP that they would vote for Fashola for governor did not name Ribadu as their presidential candidate. This is also substantially true among most of the South-West states.

• In the North, Ibrahim Shekarau does not seem to have made any headway, even though most people were impressed with his performance at the presidential debate. Shekarau does not even appear poised to give Buhari a respectable fight in Kano.

• Those in the opposition who claim that the presidential election is headed for a runoff and those in the PDP who say Jonathan will win on the first ballot all have reasonable grounds for their positions. If the CPC and ACN are able to prevent Jonathan from getting 25 per cent in Ondo, Ekiti and Osun especially, and CPC is able to limit his entry into the North, then, there will be a runoff. But if Jonathan gets 40 per cent of the South-West states including Lagos, and gets up to 25 per cent in up to 10 northern states, he will win at the first round.

• Ethnicity, religion and other pedestrian considerations still rate high among voters.

• Clearly, the South-West is the battleground for Jonathan, Buhari and Ribadu...