SDN Newswire - Preparing for 2011 elections in the Niger Delta - March 2011

Stakeholder Democracy Network

SDN Newswire - Preparing for 2011 elections in the Niger Delta - March 2011

 

State by State

In the Niger Delta the major elections will be on the third weekend - April 16th - when State Governorships are decided alongside the State Assemblies, the only body that can impeach a sitting governor.

The first weekend of elections for the National Assembly on April 2nd is primarily of interest for its sign-post value. Political parties will use it to stake out their territory and test their strength. In the past, this first weekend has been the most violent as gangs drive away potential voters who were an inconvenience to rigging elections. INEC will be testing its strength both in logistics and its ability to overcome systematic attempts to corrupt its officials and elections as a whole.

While the Presidential election will be of interest nationwide the consensus behind backing the first plausible candidate from the Niger Delta region is overwhelming. The main question will be one of turnout. With the possibility that every vote will be needed the Presidency should note that violence in the region in the first weekend will be the most likely thing to damage their prospects on April 9th. Violent rigging will send people back to their houses across the state and risk a disastrously low turnout that approaches the 10% or less levels observed in 2003 and 2007. Hiding such turnouts behind ludicrous rigged turnouts of up to 95% was the norm in the past, but it is highly unlikely to be acceptable in 2011.