Caution on Surveys

Note: Caution on Surveys.  This example posted on Igboworld Forum shows how data are manipulated by the press and blogs. DL

Final Presidential Poll Estimate: Buhari 55%, Jonathan 44% In the event of a CPC/ACN/ANPP Coalition

by Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad

Newyork -- The final Gallup 2011 pre-election poll -- based on Feb.28.-Mar28.  Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Buhari with a 53% to 42% advantage over Jonathan among likely voters if Ribadu and Shekarau were to withdraw for Buhari. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Buhari to 44% for Jonathan.

The trend data clearly show Buhari ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Mar.1 2. Buhari’s final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign. Buhari is expected to win mainly in the Northern geo-political zones and the Southwest zone to secure 25 percent of the votes cast in two thirds of all the states and the FCT.However, most Nigerians are still very skeptical that their votes would count and they cite Obasanjo’s recent statements as the basis for the skepticism. It will be recalled that Obasanjo has been involved in election results manipulation since 1979.