Weekly Buzz: 26 December 2010 - 08 January 2011

News and Resources from the Niger Delta Working Group

Weekly Buzz

26 December 2010 – 08 January 2011

Deirdre LaPin

Election activities in the 36 States and FCT proceed (very nearly) according to schedule.

Anyone who votes in London, New Delhi, Moscow, or in any large, complex democratic capital will not underestimate the enormous challenges of conducting local, state, and federal elections in a country of 155 million persons having poor infrastructure and logistics, few accurate population records, low computer literacy, and only a dozen years of recent democratic experience and education.  (Even in little Washington, D.C, voting materials at times do not show up, and the new computerized voting machines are a mystery to many.) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under the positive leadership of Professor Attahiru Jega has thus far been trying its best. From any practical viewpoint, it is a mammoth task, starting with a full voter registration, followed by multiple voting exercises.  The ambitious Mr. Jega chose to ensure the validity of “one person one vote” by introducing 132,00 brand new (and largely untested) Digital Data Capture (DDC) machines to register 70 million voters in more than 120,000 polling stations over a period of two weeks. 

As with any technological innovation, there will be anxiety and complaints.  What matters is whether there is sufficient trust in the process to yield a credible result. Success will require the cooperation of the citizens, religious and traditional leaders, security personnel, international friends, technical experts, and above all the politicians themselves. Massive national resources have been mobilized.  Most of the 360,000 National Youth Service Corps members (university graduates) are being pressed into service as registration clerks, poll workers and monitors. They have received three days of computer training on the DDC machines and life insurance policies.  Amid some controversy, school holidays have been extended to February 4 in order to free up educational facilities for the fresh voter registration exercise.

Technology aside, past elections have shown that the greed and ambition of politicians, who typically feel that they have the most to gain from the electoral process, are the greatest stumbling block to peace and transparency.  This time round, may they be worthy of the unprecedented efforts being made on their behalf and that of the deserving Nigerian citizens whom they are elected to serve.     

As a reminder, here is the planned timetable for election activities in the months of December and January:

·         screening of gubernatorial candidates..... on December 21 and December 22

·         screening for State Assembly aspirants ......on December 21 and December 22

·         election of three ad-hoc delegates in wards for 774 LGAs ... on December 28

·         screening of Federal Senate and House of Reps candidates ..... on December 29 and December 30

·         election of party candidates for both Federal Senate and House of Reps..... on January 5.

·         special congresses, election of gubernatorial candidates ........January 9

·         screening of presidential aspirants would be held in Abuja on..... January 11.

·         general elections for presidential primaries. ........ (on or about) January 13

·         INEC ends accreditation of candidates … January 15

·         voter registration using new computerized equipment … January 15 – 29.

·         posting of voter registers … February 3.

Delta State Gubernatorial rerun returns Uduaghan and offers lessons for the upcoming 2011 election season.

While “not perfect,” as INEC Chair Prof. Attahiru Jega acknowledged, reports indicate that the re-run election for governor in Delta State held on 6 January was generally peaceful and well-attended in most polling stations of the state’s 25 LGAs.  Emmanuel Uduaghan of the ruling People’s Democratic Party -- whose 2007 win was annulled by a state court in November 2010 -- once again assumed the mantle of state governor.  He was credited with 275,253 votes as against 138,244 for distant runner-up Great Ogboru, candidate of the Democratic People’s Party. Mr. Ovie Omo-Agege standing for the Republican Party of Nigeria garnered 7,481 votes.  Altogether, 450,376 votes were cast, although 17,064 were invalidated by INEC for alleged irregularities.

Against the Niger Delta’s history of compromised elections, there were a number of positives. Between 1997 and 2003 a series of local elections in the Warri area had erupted in violent competition among Ijaw, Itsekiri, and occasional Urhobo interests.  This time, ethnic affiliation was a less prominent theme.  Attention focused on the visibility, past record and political acumen of the Itsekiri incumbent versus his less well known Urhobo rivals.  Ijaw opinion was split along party lines. The Ijaw President Jonathan, a member of the ruling PDP, lent his full support to victor Uduaghan; the traditional Ijaw leader E.K. Clarke repeatedly cited the past financial crimes of the Ibori administration in which Uduaghan -- also Ibori’s cousin -- served as state secretary.  It is possible Mr. Uduaghan stands to benefit from regaining the legal immunities that come with the office of governor in advance of Mr. Ibori’s trial in the UK on money laundering charges. 

A reported 25,000 equipped security personnel were deployed for the Delta State gubernatorial election and an estimated 10,000 poll workers were mobilized. The electoral commission staff guided a process that was meant to re-create the annulled 2007 election. For this historical reason the exercise suffered from a fundamental flaw -- the re-run by necessity relied on the old and inaccurate 2007 voter rolls.  The new 2011 voter registration is planned for January 15 – 29, with display of rolls February 3. The required re-creation of the past disenfranchised some qualified voters, young persons who had turned 18 since the 2007 election, and in some cases many voters without proper cards or living in wards whose poll registers were destroyed by violence in the last election.  Despite some very vocal complaints, poll workers and INEC succeeded in patiently building a general consensus around the process and its reported results. The state electorate will soon have a second opportunity to confirm their choice when Mr. Uduaghan runs again on the PDP ticket to seek a second term as governor in April.       

Cases of sporadic violence occurred and a fair number of irregularities, excesses and misbehaviors also seen in past elections were repeated.  However, in comparison with the very dismal prior voting exercises of 1999, 2003 and 2007 in the Niger Delta, the Delta State gubernatorial rerun was a step in the direction of “fee and fair.” To his credit, Mr. Jega says he has squarely recognized the issues that emerged as cautionary lessons for the next round of voting.  At the same time, he is right to point out that relatively few of these recurrent problems fall directly under INEC control. Cases of attempted ballot box snatching and stuffing, voter intimidation by hired armed youth gangs, and stormy outbursts by a losing candidate can be overcome only through the combined effort and will of citizens and leaders in charge of security, communities, and the polity.

In expectation of the next round, INEC management will be focusing on the following internal issues:

·         Voting materials and officials arrived late for the voter accreditation exercise scheduled for 9 AM in advance of the voting at noon.

·         Voting materials were “highjacked” in several polling sites, including Oshimilli North and Warri South Local Government Areas.  Jega noted that more protection of poll workers will be needed.

·         Citizens found their names missing on the voters’ register in nearly all polling stations, and some were sent off to the next station without a better result.  Some youths chanted protest songs “we want vote, we want vote, INEC find our names.”  [The new registration exercise should minimize the incidence of missing names.]

·         Party candidate campaign posters were displayed at the entrance of some polling stations.

·         Coordination for the transportation of materials, security and INEC officials to their points of duty was lax in many areas, especially hard-to-reach locations in the creeks.

INEC is also expected to enlist active cooperation with security and community leadership to address other recurrent problems, especially in past trouble spots:

·         In Ughelli and other areas the voting day curfew was not respected by many young men in cars and on motorbikes.

·         Security personnel were often absent, especially in the riverine areas.

·         Rowdiness, waylaying of INEC vehicles carrying materials, and direct attacks on some election officials marred a number of polling sites. Mr. Jega attributed these behaviors to youth gangs paid by competing politicians.

·         Popular anxiety and poor organization accounted for a low voter turn-out in some polling stations, although participation was strong overall.

·         Patrick Naagbanton, the respected coordinator for the Center for Environment, Human Rights and Development, had to honestly conclude from reports by his state-wide observers that “the processes were riddled with a lot of irregularities and fraud."  Fortunately, INEC is conscious of the challenge … and its leadership appears to want to tackle it.

INEC Office in Ughelli razed by the “Delta Democratic Militia” to encourage a “credible election.”

The contorted logic of the election season took a turn toward the absurd when a “freedom fighting strike squad” burnt down the INEC building in Ughelli, Delta State, and injured three persons.  The incident took place a few hours before a PDP rally for the gubernatorial candidate Emmanual Uduaghan, and which President Jonathan was scheduled to attend.  In a statement, the unknown group “Delta Democratic Militia” said the act was a warning to enforce a credible election.  However, their act seemed to defeat their purpose.  INEC has ruled that no election is allowed in a venue where its office has been attacked. 

Two accomplices of James Ibori plead guilty to fraud and money laundering in London, as the UK awaits extradition of the former Delta State Governor from Dubai.

The names of Daniel McCann and Lambertus Mr. De Boer were added to those of three persons already judged guilty in James Ibori’s schemes to defraud the people of Delta State.  The two men were  accused of violating the UK Forgery and Counterfeiting Act by creating fake transaction documents between Delta State and two front companies. Their names were used to create a false account that hid fraudulent transactions in which Governor Ibori took control of funds generated from the sale of Delta State’s V-Mobile Telecom shares.  Stay tuned.

An unprecedented and deadly bombing in Abuja was calculated to cause maximum fatalities and injuries: A new dimension to violence for the New Year.

On New Year’s Eve a single explosion shattered the joyful festivities at the popular Mammy Market fish bar near Abuja’s Mogadishu Barracks.  It seemed that “Somalia” had arrived in reality as well as in name.  Government and security officials immediately saw outright terrorism as the hallmark of the blast, given the large number of persons who died (21, according to a US government report) or were injured (at least 30, some critically).  This unprecedented carnage set the blast apart from the “strategic warnings” that styled the earlier car bombs attributed to MEND at the Abuja 50^th Anniversary celebration or the Warri Niger Delta Stakeholder’s meeting last March.  In those events, MEND’s approach was to detonate at a moderate distance from the crowds, and -- as MEND’s Henry Okah himself explained from prison in South Africa – not with the intention of causing casualties. 

This new and worrying strategy to cause maximum harm led President Jonathan to draw a parallel with the Christmas Eve blasts in Jos that killed up to 80 persons.  Two bombs went off near a large market in Jos where people were doing last-minute Christmas shopping. A third hit a mainly Christian area of Jos, while the fourth was near a road that leads to the city's main mosque.  The Jos attacks were clamed three days later by internet and website by a previously unknown group calling itself Jama'atu ahlus-Sunnah Lidda'awati wal Jihad, led by Abu Muhammad, Abubakar bin Muhammad Shekau.  Shekau is the supposed deceased deputy leader of Boko Haram, whose voice and image re-emerged in connection with Boko Haram activities last April.  He is now the titulary leader of Boko Haram ... despite being “invisible.”

                                  

Thus far, no group has claimed responsibility for the Abuja Mammy Market bombings.  Some security analysts have noted the style of al Qaeda at play.  Boko Haram sometimes uses the symbolism of Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, but it has so far focused on the northeast of the country. Until Christmas, it had never carried out attacks in central cities such as Jos.  However, alleged movements by Boko Haram agents and weapons between Jos and Abuja were occasionally mooted in the press during October and November.  Bauchi is the original home of the sect, and it is situated only 75 miles from Jos.

The Abuja blasts followed a week of violence in Plateau, Bayelsa, Borno and Bauchi states.  Six people also died in on Christmas Even in attacks on two churches in Maiduguri in Borno State.  Sadly, these events were followed by more clashes in Jos, Maiduguri, and Gombe in the first weeks of January.

On January 3, in response to growing security breaches around the country, President Jonathan convened an emergency national security meeting of the National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. Owoye Azazi (rtd.), and heads of security agencies.  The meeting agreed to the presidential appointment of a Special Adviser on Terrorism, expeditious passage of the Anti-terrorism Bill now before the National Assembly, and installation of closed circuit surveillance television in selected public sites across the country.

The blast spurred a high profile offer from the FBI for immediate US assistance to investigate evidence --- and significantly -- Goodluck Jonathan’s public acceptance of support.  This in contrast to the reticence of the Yar’Adua administration to seek direct security assistance. In a news conference Janet Napolitano of Homeland Security characterized the deadly bombing as an “act of terrorism.”  Nigeria’s Daily Independent reported exclusively on January 6 that FBI agents "conclusively found that the signature of the bomb matched other blasts by the [al-Qaeda] terror network," explaining that “every bomb - like art - has the signature of its maker or group-based on funding, sophistication, and objective.” The newspaper (story not fully verified) noted that “the US Government has approved a request by Nigeria for a permanent FBI counter-terrorism unit in the country.”  These agents will likely extend their support beyond individual investigations to include training and prevention through better security coordination and surveillance.

An explosive homecoming in Baylesa State for gubernatorial aspirant Timi Alaibe.  He escaped assault at his country home in Okokuma   

There is nothing new about the longstanding tension between the two Timis – Mr. Timi Alaibe, the former NDDC managing director and Special Advisor to the President on Amnesty, and Timi Sylva, the current Bayelsa State Governor.  Recently, Mr. Alaibe declared his intention to run for governor on the Labor Party ticket against his PDP rival.  On January 7 gangs of matchet wielding young men descended upon Alaibe’s welcome home reception at his home in Okokuma and attacked his (mainly Labor party) guests and their vehicles.  

Vitriolic rhetoric flies easily around the Niger Delta, but in this Bayelsa election season, incendiary accusations – some connected with sporadic violence -- seem to have become a fine art.  Mr. Alaibe has said that the attack was “politically motivated” against a perceived “threat” which his candidacy poses to Mr. Sylva  He further claimed that friction with the other Timi led to the deaths of nine supporters and the wounding of dozens.  "They are hired thugs from outside the state as part of an organized plan to stall my bid to take over the governorship in the state. God was merciful, I escaped unhurt." The instigator of the assault is still not identified, but police have arrested 31 persons from whom they may learn more. Some citizens have called for federal intervention to stem the orgy of violence.  A pre-campaign rally for the CPC presidential candidate General Buhari (ret.) at Yenagoa in early December was also disrupted by youth gangs, who threw bottles and stones into the crowd, wounding some.  According to one report, they were later assumed to be hired by supporters of Governor Sylva.  The proof?  Their leader was said to be working in the office of the chief of staff to the Governor.

Meanwhile, Governor Sylva’s counter arguments to Alaibe’s allegations defy logic.  Without evidence, the Bayelsa State commissioner for information, Orientation and Strategy, Chief Nathan Egba blamed the violence squarely on Alaibe himself, implying that that the chaos was deliberately perpetrated by “cultists” hired by the candidate in order to embarrass and undermine the State government. Alaibe responded by weaving more threads into the web of intrigue and vitriol.  He loudly told the press that he had been was being “set up” by the Governor.  The police commissioner has promised, “no stone will be left untouched. We will get to the root of the matter.” 

Bayelsa is currently the most volatile state in the Niger Delta.  There is a recent history of violence against the persons, homes, and families of senior office holders.  The State, which has the highest per capita revenues from oil, therefore  has the highest political stakes. Political militias are a continuous presence and threat to peace. The brewing disorder in this predominantly Ijaw State regrettably seems to be beyond the control of the Ijaw President.  The Bayelsa country home of Goodluck Jonathan himself was attacked in 2007, following his successful election as vice-president.  And yet, in this fresh election season, the time has probably come for Mr. Jonathan to try and weigh in, lest his reputation (and possibly his own election) becomes another casualty.   

A Christmas message from “Jomo Gbomo” is declared false by MEND

Jomo Gbomo, spokesman of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, seemed to undergo a personality change over the Christmas season. A message sent outside Gbomo’s usual channels, promised to “review our mode of operation in 2011.”  The message also praised President Jonathan’s support to rebuilding Ayakuroma community, which was partially destroyed by military forces in early December in an attack on John Togo’s Niger Delta Liberation Force (NDLF).  It said further: “We will embrace a revamped Post-Amnesty initiative and work to make the Niger Delta a better place for all human beings.” 
Curiously this part of the message seemed to repeat the NDLF demand that the President organize a stakeholders’ forum to develop a comprehensive plan post-amnesty plan.  The communication clearly did not have the hallmarks of MEND (or JG), but in this respect its message sounded quite a bit like “Mark Anthony,” the spokesman for the NDLF.

Almost instantly JG’s handlers denounced the message as a “fabrication” and went further to identify the author, correctly or not, as someone who worked for the Presidency.  It is an old formula.  MEND has implicated the Presidency before.  In October Henry Okah contended that associates of the President called on him to ask MEND to retract its responsibility for the Anniversary blasts in Abuja.  The purported motive was to shift blame to political opponents. Once again, the rhetorical maze constructed in cyberspace has taken another turn. Who said, who said, who said?  So far, Togo … Mark Anthony … Can we expect to hear to Cleopatra in the future … or perhaps even Julius Cesar?

Henry Okah loses his appeal for bail in South Africa

Meanwhile, Henry Okah, who is being charged in South Africa with terrorism in connection with the Abuja Independence Day blasts, re-presented his bail application through a respected Senior Advocate Dumisa Ntsebeza.  Okah argued that he should be released on grounds of a kidney ailment.  The Judge felt that there is a prima facie case against Okah, and there was not enough justification to overturn the magistrate's decision last November to deny bail.  The ruling could be taken to the Supreme Court of Appeal.

Police are strengthened in Borno and Plateau States to complement joint military operations in the election season. 

Analysts are suggesting that violence in Borno and Plateau States is aimed at undermining President Jonathan. To better combat the re-emergence of Boko Haram, police in Borno State have lauched “Operation Black Scorpion.”  The Islamist group has targeted police units in past months, viewed as defenders of “western civilization,” which they seek to supplant. Since October seven police officers have been killed.  Commissioner of Police Alhaji Mohammad Abubakar noted, “Some political thugs are being used to carry out attacks on individuals and policemen in the state.” He affirmed that “any politician linked to the killings will be prosecuted, no matter how highly placed." Popular intimidation and solicitation by Boko Haram members has hampered police efforts to maintain order.

Boko Haram also claimed the coordinated attacks in Jos on Christmas Eve that killed 80 persons.  In the aftermath, 58 more persons went missing between December 26 and January 9. Failure of military units to protect civilians under attack led a spokesperson from the Christian Association of Nigeria to observe, "If the Special Task Force (STF) is not here to protect lives and properties they should be withdrawn."  Some community leaders have called for their replacement by mobile and regular police units.